Posted on 11/04/2006 11:08:21 PM PST by freespirited
More Republicans than Democrats have voted early in Mecklenburg County, a potentially crucial indicator for Tuesday's election.
Election Day is still three days away, but more than 18,000 people have already voted.
In the past two major elections in Mecklenburg, the party that dominated early voting controlled the board of county commissioners and chalked up victories in other major races.
Through Wednesday, registered Republicans outnumbered Democrats, 43.2 percent to 39.1 percent, according to an Observer analysis of in-person early voting. The strong Republican turnout bucks national predictions of Democratic success, and could leave power over property taxes, parks and school construction in Republican hands.
The numbers also mark a huge reversal from 2004, when an early-voting surge helped Democrats sweep all three at-large county commissioner seats and deliver Mecklenburg to presidential candidate John Kerry.
The early-voting numbers this year are still partial and far from definitive. And despite party registration, there's no way to know which candidates early voters picked. Another unknown: Who will turn out to vote Tuesday?
Still, in a county where Democrats make up more than 43 percent of registered voters and Republicans less than 34 percent, the numbers so far are striking.
Democrats say they need to step up their turnout efforts.
Michael Evans, who chairs the county Democratic Party, said officials noticed during the first week after early voting started Oct. 19 that the party's turnout was lagging. Voters aren't as interested in this "blue-moon" election, which lacks a Senate or a presidential race at the top of the ballot, he said.
"There wasn't really a recognition there was an election taking place until mid-October, for most folks," Evans said.
GOP leaders and candidates say they're cautiously optimistic, but they're not making any predictions.
"I'll let you know Wednesday," said John Aneralla, who chairs the county Republican Party. He said Republicans have been running a strong voter turnout operation, knocking on doors and calling people to ask them to vote. The state party has become unusually involved in the local race by buying television ads.
The early-voting patterns have foreshadowed election results before. In both 2002 and 2004, the party that turned out more voters early won key races in Mecklenburg. In 2002, when more Republicans voted early, the party took over the county board and Sen. Elizabeth Dole won more votes than her Democratic opponent, Charlottean Erskine Bowles.
This year, Republican turnout isn't dwarfing Democratic voting by as much as it did four years ago. But some local Democrats are concerned, and say their voters may have grown complacent amid national predictions of Democratic victories this year.
"I hope that between now and Tuesday, the Democrats will understand what's at stake, and there will be a new sense of urgency about getting out the vote," said county commissioners Chairman Parks Helms, running for his eighth term.
Republican county Commissioner Jim Puckett, a district member running for an at-large seat, said that the lack of big-name races gives local candidates "an opportunity to talk to voters who are listening."
He said he wasn't surprised by the turnout trends favoring Republicans.
Besides the county race, a closely watched congressional race could hinge on turnout in Mecklenburg. U.S. Rep. Robin Hayes, R-N.C., of Concord, is battling a challenge from Democrat Larry Kissell.
That district includes heavily Democratic sections of east Charlotte where Kissell must win by large enough margins to outweigh Hayes' advantages in the suburban and rural sections of the district.
Democratic turnout appears particularly slow in predominantly black sections of Charlotte.
In 2004, 7 percent of all early voters cast ballots at the West Boulevard library, where Democratic candidates reaped 5-to-1 ratios. But this year, West Boulevard voters make up just 2.6 percent of the countywide total so far.
Meanwhile, the opposite is true at the Morrison Regional Library in the SouthPark area, the heart of Republican Charlotte. This year, Morrison voters represent 16.9 percent of all early voters, compared with 7.9 percent in 2004.
Carl Clark, a local Democratic political consultant who has looked at early-voting data around the state, said Democratic turnout is lagging in urban areas but strong elsewhere.
"I ain't panicking," he said.
Efforts to organize African American voters to vote early this year fell flat, said Dwayne Collins, president of the county's Black Political Caucus.
Collins said the caucus is now concentrating on turning out African American voters on Election Day.
"I know historically from an African American perspective, we've been a little leery of coming out to vote early," he said. "As I go around the community talking about early voting, people say they just want to wait to vote to make sure their vote is counted on Election Day."
Still, Collins said he's concerned about whether African American voters will turn out in an off-year election.
"We're doing all we can do ensure that isn't the case," he said.
Another glorious moment for the MSM.
/sarcasm
"Halp us Jon Carry - We R stuck hear n Irak."
We must make sure we bring conservative voting family and friends to the polls on tuesday
http://www.gopteamleader.com/Default.aspx
In the FYI, FWIW department:
Here's my brief report on what I saw with Georgia's Advance Voting Monday:
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1728963/posts?page=20#20
And some followup here:
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1728963/posts?page=28#28
I have carefully thought over what I saw, and I finally realized what my first impression of the crowd was...
"These are all talk radio listeners."
So the Republican base is motivated- highly motivated. At least down here in the swamps of Georgia.
Stay tuned... it's going to be a wild ride.
This time next year the SV family will (hopefully) be residents of Mecklenberg County. That will be 3 more conservative voters in the county.
should they be reporting these things before the election?
doesn't seem right somehow.
should they be reporting these things before the election?
doesn't seem right somehow.
<Especially since they aren't going to release the early voting records and exit polls to "keep the bloggers from getting ahold of them." Their words. Meaning they can control public perception.
the biggest point about NC is that they have no Senator, Governor or President on the ballot - so the voters are either very motivated for their party or local elections or they stay home. GOTV GOP!!!
Chris Matthews singlehandedly depresses Dem turnout across the nation with predictions of huge victories? Priceless.
Ping!
The entire DBM was claiming the election over two weeks ago. Maybe some Democrats think they missed their chance to vote ;-)
Bwahahaha! Could they actually vote out some of those dingbat County Commissioners and School Board? And if they did, would that help or hurt my property value in western Union County.
(All politics extremely local :-).
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