Posted on 11/06/2006 7:33:54 AM PST by frankjr
A big reason "momentum" in polls is important is the fact that the polls aren't up-to-date. If you see a poll today it was taken yesterday, if not earlier. And that means that, if we have "momentum," the reality as of today is already better than what is being reported.All very well to speak of avoiding overconfidence, but it's human nature to be more motivated to vote for a close winner than for a loser. Besides, any Republican who doesn't think every vote can really count was giving himself a colonoscopy in November of 2000.
Given the 'rat strongholds in high population density areas, a 'rat lead of less than 5% on the national generic ballot is reasonably good news for the GOP.
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