Posted on 11/06/2006 7:33:54 AM PST by frankjr
TO: REPUBLICAN LEADERSHIP AND INTERESTED PARTIES
FROM: KEN MEHLMAN
DATE: NOVEMBER 6, 2006
RE: MOMENTUM
New polls say our party is heading into Election Day with strong momentum. Specifically, three national polls this weekend show Republicans making major gains.
THE GENERIC BALLOT IS CLOSING. The Pew Research Center for the People and the Press (November 1-4) shows Republicans cutting the Democrat lead on the generic ballot from down 11 last month (39-50) to down just four points today (43-47). The ABC News/Washington Post poll (November 1-4) shows Republicans cutting the Democrat edge from -14 two weeks ago to only a six point margin today. In addition, Gallup (November 2-5) has the Democrat margin dropping by half over the past two weeks, to a seven-point race.
{see graph in comment section}
By comparison, while Republicans held an average 1-point lead in these polls in 1994 and 2002, the current average Democrat lead—six points—is the same as it was in 1998, when there was minimal change in the balance of Congress.
REPUBLICAN ENTHUSIASM IS GROWING.
Democrat interest in the election has remained relatively static, while Republican interest (+14) and enthusiasm (+10) have increased significantly, according to Pew, which concludes “Republicans now register a greater likelihood of voting than do Democrats...”
REPUBLICANS ARE PICKING UP MORE SWING VOTES.
The ABC/ Washington Post poll showed a net 10-point gain for Republicans among independents from last month. Pew showed a similar gain among independents of 10 points since last month and a huge 17-point net gain among moderates.
MORE REPUBLICANS/CONSERVATIVES WILL NOW VOTE.
* The ABC/Washington Post poll shows the Republican edge in the generic ballot has increased 10 points among conservatives, from 68-29 (a month ago) to 73-24. * The final pre-election Pew poll shows a similar trend with Republicans now planning to support the GOP growing a net-3 points. It also shows a net-6 point increase among conservatives and net-18 points among white evangelical Christians.
72-HOUR PROGRAM IS WORKING.
The GOP’s 72-hour program has reached 27 million volunteer contacts through Saturday, hitting 3 million voters this Saturday alone. By and large, this effort will have its impact on Election Day and will not show up in most public opinion polls. However, some trends are starting to be seen in the data:
* Republicans are casting a wider net: According to the ABC/Washington Post poll, among those who have been contacted by campaigns, 70% were contacted by Republicans while only 61% were contacted by Democrats. * And using better targeting: The Pew study says that we are not only contacting more voters, but contacting the right voters: 40% of our party was contacted by Republicans, while Democrats only connected with 34% of their own party.
OTHER EVIDENCE OF MOMENTUM.
* The ABC/Washington Post poll shows Republicans gaining on handling of Iraq (+8) and Personal Values (+12). * The Kerry Factor -- John Kerry’s “stuck in Iraq” remark has attracted the attention of eighty-four percent of voters, and 19%—including 18% of independents—say it has raised serious doubts about voting for their local Democratic candidates. * Following recent gains in the Dow and low unemployment numbers, those who see the economy as excellent or good increased from 36% to 44% in the Pew poll. * On average, the President’s job approval increased a net 4 points. * Voters’ view of the direction of country has improved dramatically - a net14 point gain among those that see things going in the right direction in the ABC poll and a 12-point gain in Gallup.
If we had another 4-5 days or so, I wouldn't be so worried. The trend has definitely been moving Republican. But I'm not sure less than 24 hours is enough to get the job done and let the Republicans keep the majority.
Exactamundo, will these upticks register tomorrow at the polling places?
Here's hoping for a great day on Tuesday. The Saddam decision has not been taken into account in these polls. So I hope that helps too.
"Oh, by the way, the Post was kind enough to give us a bit of history on their generic ballot preference question:
Dem Rep Other Neither
cand. cand. (vol.) (vol.)
11/6/94 RV 47 42 5 2
10/31/94 RV 48 44 4 1
Yes, on November 6, 1994, among registered voters, ABC News/Washington Post had the Democrats ahead on the generic ballot, 47 percent to 42. So we know just how valuable an indicator it is."
http://tks.nationalreview.com/
Prior to election: A 5% Dem lead in 1994 (2 days befor election) and now in 2006, a 6% Dem. With being down 5% in 1994, GOP did ok.
"But I'm not sure less than 24 hours is enough to get the job done and let the Republicans keep the majority".
...this is precisely what we don't need right now. If you don't feel like it's gonna work out than keep the negative vibes out of the chatroom! Vote and go to bed.
I have learned of GOTV efforts in Michigan that have resulted in several hundred thousand Rebublican absentee ballots being cast from people that were NOT likely voters. The republican absentee ballot count outnumbers the Dim count by about 3 to 1. It could be a nice day in MI when the Canadian Bitch and Fat Debbie are sent packing.
Good find
What the hell are you talking about? You have NO clue what I do for the RNC. None.
If you can't bother to know who you're talking to or what you're talking about, maybe you should just shut up.
Great post from Mehlman's email. I was thinking about posting it too.
Thanks.
If we had another 4-5 days or so,
Frankly, I think the timing is just about right. Don't forget, these polls are probably about 24-36 hours behind the curve. The maximum uptick could possibly hit tomorrow. Let's hope that's enough to carry the day.
You, Pew's polling might be biased in favor of the democrats as well. The GOP could very well be ahead of the democrats at this point. And I've got to believe the with greater intensity than the democrats, a better GOTV effort, close races will go our way.
With all due respect, you have been negative in every post that I have read lately. It will not help regardless of outcome. Winners require a winning attitude. I hope you get a little with the good news we have today. It could be worse... we are surging and we could be plummeting.
LLS
Similar things are being reported in Ohio.
Absentee ballots are running 2 to 1 for Republicans in areas Dems have targeted as easy wins for them.
The Buckeye blog reported despondent members beings stunned at how much more effective Republicans have been in various Ohio counties.
With all due respect, has it not occurred to you that some of the posts we've seen that say we're going to win will do the opposite of what needs to happen? Over-confidence will encourage some voters to stay home.
So you'll just have to forgive me if I think it's better that we don't get over confident.
Thanks Frank, but Ken should know I distrust the polls when they're against us, so I distrust them when they turn for us. Any upturn toward Republicans now is the pollsters normalizing their samples to the actual turnout rather than the lopsided +dem samples they usually report. My gut tells me we'll be okay on 11-8.
No reason to apologize, as I was not flaming I promise. I see no optimism in your posts at all. Over confident? No confidence is what comes across in your posts.
I think we are positioned to keep both houses... I could be wrong... but you do not go into battle without confidence. Confidence builds more confidence. Everyone that is going to vote tomorrow will not supress their vote due to over confidence. Just the opposite may happen. If Republicans think their vote will not count because the dims are going to win, millions may NOT show up to vote.
LLS
What' the average percentage of people voting in mid-term elections? 35% or so?
If freepers and conservatives think we're going to squeek through tomorrow and they wake up and it's raining, or their kid has the sniffles or they have to work late and don't feel like waiting in line, they'll think to themselves "What's one more vote".
I'd rather they read my posts than yours and decide that one more vote IS important and can make a difference and decide to drag themselves to the polls no matter what.
We need broken glass Republicans, not people who think posting cheery "the tide is turning for Republicans" is the way to get people to the polls.
It's a matter of style and mine is different than yours, clearly. And talking to Republicans in town and on FR, I've see little reason for optimism, until last week's Kerry gaffe and Saddam's trial verdict. Whether that's enough time to turn things around or not, I don't know, and neither do you.
Peach, I am going to pray for you along with prayers for our Nation, President, Military, and Party. I am praying that you are very happy tomorrow night!
LLS
I'm praying too, LiblieSlayer. I'd like to think we're all going to be high fiving each other tomorrow night :-)
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