Burns would pick up about 350 votes in Meagher, 500 in Fergus, 2000 in Yellowstone, 400 in Gallatin and lose 50 or so in Lake County.
That's a pickup of about 3200 net votes and he's currently about 200 behind. Too close for comfort (and I don't know how MT handles absentees)... but slightly encouraging.
I noticed that the Republican candidate for the House, Denny Rehberg, received about 70,000 more than his Dims opponent. In many counties, he also received more votes than Burns did. So, it's more about individual, I think, than about party.