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A New Man. Next, A New Plan For Iraq?
Rumsfeld's exit opens the door to fresh thinking
By Anna Mulrine and Kevin Whitelaw

Posted Sunday, November 12, 2006

Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld didn't appear on any ballot last week, but the war that he and President Bush have waged in Iraq emerged as perhaps the most decisive factor in the Republican defeat. After a dreadful year of worsening sectarian violence and revenge attacks, polls have clearly shown a diminishing faith in the Bush administration's ability to turn things around in Iraq-nearly 6 in 10 voters said they disapprove of the war.

President Bush wasted no time in announcing Rumsfeld's resignation (though insisting that the departure was planned regardless of the election's outcome). The nomination of former CIA Director Robert Gates for the Pentagon post is a clear signal that the White House is trying to shake off its history of "stay the course" rhetoric. But while Bush's motivation might have more to do with politics than with military strategy, Gates could make a real difference. A member of the bipartisan Iraq Study Group led by former Rep. Lee Hamilton and former Secretary of State James Baker, who served in the first President Bush's administration, Gates could be a critical bridge between the White House and the clutch of foreign-policy graybeards many Republicans and Democrats are looking to as a lifeline— a last-gasp chance to reverse the downward trend in Iraq.

Shifting gears. The choice of Gates eases the way for Bush to latch on to at least some of Baker's proposals, due out soon. Baker's group could point to a strategy that "is a little different— or totally different," Lt. Gen. Raymond Odierno, who next month will become the No. 2 commander in Iraq, tells U.S. News. In any event, he adds, "it's going to be very much a factor."

The Baker report is expected to cement a shift in emphasis from creating a model democracy in the Middle East to simply achieving stability in Iraq-still no small feat. "Both the American people and the Congress don't want this to last a lot longer," says a senior U.S. military official. "You'll always get the party line of 'stay the course,' but everybody realizes that it's to a point." The question of an American troop surge, advocated by Republican Sen. John McCain, will come to the fore as well. "Do we need more people, or do they become a greater irritant?" asks Odierno. "There comes a time when you wear out your welcome."

Challenges. There are no magic bullets in Iraq. The underlying problem is that America's ability to change the dynamic there appears to be continually diminishing. The Sunni insurgents remain disturbingly strong—October was the deadliest month for U.S. soldiers in nearly two years. And troops have been unable to quell the sectarian violence. A vaunted security plan for Baghdad has failed to stem the bloodshed, Iraqi security forces remain unreliable, and U.S. officials have been unable to persuade Iraq's government to confront the Shiite militias or their leaders. The White House was particularly discouraged by what National Security Adviser Stephen Hadley found on his recent trip to Iraq. "The situation there is as complex as it's ever been and is getting more complicated every couple of weeks," says a senior administration official.

Gates would be greeted at the Pentagon by "one of the most monumental challenges ever facing a secretary of defense," says Larry Wilkerson, a retired colonel who was chief of staff to former Secretary of State Colin Powell. Gates is known more for being a good manager and a consensus builder than for his out-of-the-box thinking. His career in government began 40 years ago when he joined the Central Intelligence Agency as an analyst. A renowned Soviet expert, he would be reunited with many former Bush 41 colleagues. In a speech last year, Gates signaled the need for patience in Iraq. "We need to stay there," he said, "as long as necessary to get the job done."

But the Cold War veteran would represent a return to the philosophy of "realpolitik" in foreign policy. In the same speech, he laid out a definition of victory that is much less sweeping than the one described by Bush administration's early rhetoric about bringing democracy to Iraq. "We all hope that it will be quick-that in a year or two, this government in Iraq will be secure enough that they will be able to invite us to leave," Gates said. "And we can do so, leaving behind a government that can survive."

Gates could help usher in a new diplomatic outreach in the region, reversing the administration's refusal to engage with Iran and Syria. Two years ago, Gates chaired a task force that called for reopening a dialogue with Iran. Baker has also signaled that his Iraq Study Group is likely to call for new efforts to enlist Iraq's neighbors to help create stability in Iraq.

But one of his biggest diplomatic challenges may be contending with pressure from the new Democratic-controlled Congress for a speedy drawdown in Iraq. The likely incoming chairmen of the Senate and House Armed Services committees both called last week for "redeployments"—meaning withdrawal—of U.S. troops to begin before the end of this year. "The key is to begin a reduction of U.S. forces in Iraq," says Sen. Carl Levin, currently the ranking Democrat on the Senate Armed Services Committee. "Make Iraqis decide—do they want a civil war, or do they want a new nation?"

A quick withdrawal from Iraq remains unlikely, and Rumsfeld's departure may do little to change the dynamic on the ground. "It's like a new coach coming in," says one Pentagon official. "The guy doesn't yell at you anymore, and the guy doesn't ask you to do the impossible anymore. But at the same time, your losing season continues to be your losing season."

http://www.usnews.com/usnews/news/articles/061112/20iraq_2.htm