[woodbutcher]

I think you are close, but here is my take.

Baker, Gates, Rice and Powell will talk the Iraq problem to death.

We will slowly ease out of Iraq. Iran and Syria will fill in the vacuum.

Iran, Iraq, Syria, and Egypt will then have Jordan and the Saudis in a vice so they will be forced to join up or be overrun by the crazies.

Now this axis will control so much of the world's oil the pressure on Europe will be unbearable. The huge Muslim population in Europe and England will make it even more difficult. Europe will capitulate. The English, as silly as they can be at times, are the toughest people in the world. It will be a bloodbath, but they will cure their Muslim problem one way or another when it comes to the decision time.

The Iranian axis will use oil money to build nuke weapons. That will ensure that Europe gives up.

Not a shot will be fired, other than the usual terrorist stuff.

That will leave England, China, Japan and Australia as US allies.

At that point, something really big will happen.

I see Russia as playing all ends against the middle and siding with no one in the open, but selling nukes to Iran while selling oil and gas to Europe, probably at an inflated price.

Only when it reaches this point, will the American people wake up. And then we will have to use nukes. It will be too big for foot soldiers.

Bush made a very bad mistake in trying to sell the Iraq war as a wonderful Christian thing to do; make Iraq a democracy. The man on the street does not give a flip whether the Iraqis have democracy.

Bush should have sold it for what it is: Europe 1930-39 .

[LachlanMinnesota]

Don't forget the impact of our new and closer relations with the Nation of India, who are also noo friends of the Islamofacists. Their strategic position in the world, as well as their military might and skilled manpower are an invaluable asset to your scenario. I believe they are our long term allies in this conflict.

[photodawg]

Bush made a very bad mistake in trying to sell the Iraq war as a wonderful Christian thing to do; make Iraq a democracy. The man on the street does not give a flip whether the Iraqis have democracy.

Bush should have sold it for what it is: Europe 1930-39 .

'''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''

Interesting scenario, except I think Russia will overtly side with islam and China will take no side.

As far as Bush and this war, I believe Don't start something you can't finish. In the Paranoia following 9-11 and the urge to resolve the crisis. The Iraq policy was formulated too hastily. Bush and neocons knew the American public would support limited response to 9-11 threats and hence portrayed Iraq and Hussein as bogeyman, thinking they could do an updated desert storm. They greatly misunderestimated (smile) the strength of islamic jihad, and were now caught in a battle that became the major front in the war on islam, with Iran pulling the strings. America is not at the consciousness level politically to ruthlessly fight the third world war and would not stand for escalation of this preemptive strike that produced no WMD's. We need to be on a war footing and only the conservative one third of our people are ready to make the sacrifices necessary to ruthlessly destroy this enemy, i.e. to nuke iran, and deport muslims in US. consequently Bush had to settle for the possible, which was this democratic mission to save islam from itself. The libs will attack any war we fight and have the media to spin things out of control. This is why I think we will make a deal with Iran to give them their nuke program, Iraq and Palestine state, in return for allowing Israel to exist, and US withdrawal. It will buy us time but little else, and nuclear war will be outcome to about 70% probability regardless. We might, further along in the scenario, be willing to relocate Israel to prevent nuke war. and hope muslims will be satisfied with entire middle east and Europe.

[tcrlaf]

You're missing a couple of Wildcards....

1-Poland is fast becoming the leader of the Eastern Bloc of the European Union, and it's influence is growing fast.

They have abandoned the old Soviet Military doctrines, and are moving to quality, mobility, survival, and cutting edge training for thier miltary.

The Eastern Bloc is the buffer between a radicalized Middle East, and Europe, while even the Romanians are beginning to emerge as solid US allies..

2-The Emirate States are the financial hub of the Middle East, and realize the Europeans would sell them out in a heartbeat to the Dictator/Mullah of the week in heartbeat.

The U.S. is heavily involved in these states, much of it under the Radar, and out of the media...