This Friday, Rosales has an advantage over Chavez by 5 points. The national Chief Executive fell from 46% to 42%, while the aspirant climbed from 43% to 47%.
The celebrations of the La Chinita fair coincide with the first week of Rosales over the 40% barrier. This is the first important ascent over Chavez.
The undecideds fell, also for the first time to single digits and the result shows that the tendency of this sector inclines for a "change."
Since the 1st of November, Chavez fell 0.1% per day, while Rosales climbed 1% daily.
It is very difficult to prognosticate a result in a contest so polarized. Analysts consulted indicate that having a close contest is the most probable scenario.
Nevertheless, if the tendency of the tracking poll were to sustain itself for the next two weeks, Rosales could obtain a 53% to 57% [portion] of the vote, against one of 43% to 47% of the aspirant for reelection [Chavez]; which implies a distance of 6 points in the worst of the two cases.
But, as we have made clear, the tracking is a very sensible measurement of daily events. The numbers of this type of measurement, we continue to insist, are not suitable for the weak of heart. No specialist can assure that Chavez's stagnation or Rosales's growth will be maintained.
The explanations for today's behavior are several. Among those must be included that Chavez is paying by voter punishment, the effect of the recent corruption scandals. But it is the President himself who contributes most to this tendency: Friday he crowned the week with a speech given in [Isla] Maragarita in which he returned to underlining the dangers which are circling about the peace of the country and then turned around and set out against freedom of expression.
For their part, the Rosales propagandists seem to have fallen behind on account of being left with only a few days to win the undecideds and they have begun a race of great intensity towards the closing of the campaign.
This Friday, Rosales and his followers are organizing at least three speaking events marked by a great enthusiasm and happiness. The candidate looks to be everywhere with almost simultaneous events in Zulia [and] Caracas, leading up to an important gathering in Maracay, the heart of Chavista militancy.
Rosales, with limited resources, has carried out exiting "Avalanches" [i.e. "mass gatherings"] in Zulia, Tachira, Carabobo, and Caracas. This reinforces the perception that the Zulian [i.e. Rosales] has greater pulling power in the street than does Chavez.
Chavez had an important gathering Thursday, but he has maintained with a more aloof campaign and is only strengthening his voter base without penetrating the skin of the undecideds.
Not to worry. The "Peanut Boy" will come back to monitor the elections, and Chavez will win by a resounding margin.
Don't be surprised if Rosales is dead before they finish counting the votes.
Spare us the phoney polls. Chevez is in. He controls the ballot counting. He's president for life you Vennie suckers.
Thank you for the translation!
We have plenty of problems in our own hemisphere that have gone unadressed. Lets hope that Rosales wins and Chavez does not try anything to steal that election.
¡El Diablo es culpable!
(Bush's fault)
LOL!
Chavez doesn't need to worry. When he steals the election Jimmy Carter will be there to put the seal of approval on it.
In the words of Chavez hero Stalin : "It's not who votes that matters but who it is that counts the votes." The fix is already in, count on it.
Chavez will never give up power peacefully.
Just what the doctor ordered huh?