The US embargo was in response to years of Japanese agression against China and East Asia, enslavement of millions, vast numbers of murders, etc. etc.
To say the US "provoked" Japan into WWII is like saying "we can invade anyone we want, and if you object we will invade you, too!"
Still, FDR and others were quite naive in not realizing fully that to the militarists of Japan the only appropriate response to the embargo would be war, and most likely via surprise attack as they had previously used against the Russians. It required profound ignorance for US leaders to imagine that the Japanese military would simply say "ooops, US embargo, we'd better back down...."
Similar puzzlement arises when looking at the irrational faith in the value of "sanctions" and "diplomacy" today vs. Iran and North Korea. What rational person thinks that either of those governments is going to be constrained by the mere inconvenience of sanctions??? Sure, they won't feel they can get away with launching a surprise attack on the USA ala Pearl Harbor, but both of those countries are certainly willing to practice plenty of brinksmanship while improving their nuclear programs, and external pressures only make their internal controls clamp down even harder.
Complacency kills many felines.
Of course they will. They will have a bagman deliver it quietly in an unmarked container ship, rather than a horde of planes with the Iranian flag painted on them, that's all.