Jihadis and Whores

Asia Times ^ | Nov 21, 2006 | Spengler

[Zack Nguyen]

I have never heard that the population growth rate for Iran is falling. CIA has it growing at 1.1% per year which is faster than the US.

Because the birth rate was once so high, statistically Iran may continue to grow for quite some time. But I remember reading somewhere (maybe Spengler) that the current birthrate is about 1.8 children per woman, compared with America's 2.1.

But as I said in an earlier post, I am not sure that a collapsing birthrate necessarily equals reckless national behavior.

[M1Tanker]

This could be why Iran is so intent on immediate global war with everyone. They only have another 20 years of population support before losing their military aged males. Add to this the millions of anti-regime Iranians who are waiting for a crack in Akmed's new empire so they can throw him down the well. Add to this that Iran's economy is collapsing while it focuses on "super weapons" that usually do not exist (and cost huge ammounts of money). Add to this a world that is leaving Iran behind.

Pretty rosy in the long run. In the short run, however, it is terrifying. Iran is a wounded, dying animal which is backing itself into a corner. It could have been the richest, most prosperous country in the Middle East, but chose the path of destruction and totalitarianism.

Nothing is more dangerous than a cornered, wounded, rabid animal. Even if that animal is itself solely responsible for being cornered, wounded, and rabid.

[dalight]

That diagram showed a steady growth in population with a spike. Only someone who is concentrating on that spike could come up with this population crisis crap.

They might well have a crisis, but the part where the population is falling like a rock in that 2050 chart is pure speculation.

[Bloody Sam Roberts]

"By Spengler's Universal Law of Gender Parity ..."

Dr. Egon Spengler?

[OldCorps]

Who is Spengler? Why no first name.

[bordergal]

Women are also immolating themselves in Afghanistan-something like 700 this year. When you have conditions where young women burn themselves alive on a regular basis, your society isn't doing so well.

[headsonpikes]

That's his pseudonym - I believe he is known, but not by me!

[justshutupandtakeit]

That doesn't add up. Iran has 1.04 males to each female. The US has 0.97 males to each female. Hence, if the pop. growth rate is higher in Iran then each woman must have more kids per capita.

[justshutupandtakeit]

Correct. It does not add up.

[Scotswife]

" The Rap=crap industry regularly promotes pimps and hoes so shamlessly, the treatment of women in those communities, the high prvalence of abortion there etc are all disturbing trends, IMO."

Agreed...we don't come out looking so good do we?
Look at our porn and internet porn industry.
Housewives buying a camera and charging for access to her website.
Hollywood starlets promoting hooker clothes and hooker behavior.
All the while - thousands of babies being murdered in abortuaries.
Sometimes we should look more at our own problems before we criticize problems elsewhere.

[Zack Nguyen]

I confess I am relatively ignorant of statistical math, even though I took a class on it once. :) My point was that Iran's current low average age is a product of a very high birthrate a generation ago. Today this high birthrate has dropped considerably, but there are still a lot of people in their 20's and 30's walking around, and the population won't start to drop for quite some time.

Could you go into more detail with your male/female ratios?

[justshutupandtakeit]

They are from the CIA source book statistics on each nation in the world. Those are the totals for the US and Iran but are also listed in terms of ages. Generally there is a 1.05 or so male female ratio at birth and it declines with age. In the US the biggest discrepency is in the older population since the average female lives about 5 yrs longer.

[OldCorps]

Is he Jewish?

[Zack Nguyen]

I don't know, but he is almost certainly Catholic, judging by some of his articles.

[Dumb_Ox]

I don't know, but he is almost certainly Catholic, judging by some of his articles.

I'm pretty sure he's a Protestant of some kind. He often claims the Catholic Church was never hard enough on paganism.