What will it take for the Iraqi military to be "ready"? (Vanity)

Self ^ | November 30, 2006 | EternalHope

[EternalHope]

I'm thinking that might be exaclty what was going on last week with Cheney's trip into the region, and this week with Bush.

They are trying mightily to get the pieces in as beneficial arrangement as possible as quickly as possible... before the Dems pull out the funding and leave a bloodbath like Viet Nam turned in to '75.

Agreed.

Hope they succeed, but not overly optimistic...

[EternalHope]

Good link, good points.

[EternalHope]

Every Iraqi male over the age of 12 is ready to kill somebody.

It seems that way. Not just in Iraq either.

But if we just walk away and let them kill each other to their hearts content, we should consider what will happen if Iraq disintegrates. For starters, here's a hypothetical scenario that could turn out to be very real:

1. The U.S. pulls out, and Iraq disintegrates.

2. Iran and Turkey carve up the Kurdish part of Iraq, either by agreement between the two nations, or by fighting each other.

3. Iran and Syria carve up the rest of Iraq.

4. At that point Saudia Arabia, Kuwait, and the UAE would be unable to stand against Iran militarily on their own. Promises of protection by the United States would sound pretty hollow. Iran could either take them over directly, or they might reach an "accomodation" with Iran that had the same practical effect.

5. Iran would then control a huge proportion of the world's oil supply.

[Defiant]

Authoritarian governments just breed trouble

Yeah, like the governments I mentioned (Phillipines, Taiwan, Greece, S.Korea), and then there's El Salvador, Argentina, Chile, Spain, all authoritarian governments that we supported in the post-war era, making sure that they were not subverted by communists, while at the same time bringing them into the western world, and leading them to become successful free societies. In the post 9-11 world, we need to make sure that Muslim countries don't go into the Islamofascist orbit, and if a representative democracy so easily descends into islamism, as we can see in Iraq, in Turkey, Indonesia and Malaysia, we may need to work towards installing pro-American governments while at the same time building societies that are modern, that are well-off, and will be more likely to reject Islamic jihad.

[Defiant]

I think they do have that option. I think that if a strongman who had the support of key factions of Shiites and Sunnis in the army, and who would not be threatening to the Kurds, came to the fore, and took control of the government, bringing order to the place, we'd say thank you Lord, post a few troops nearby or in a base in the desert, and call it a day.

[sgtyork]

When it comes to training, after 3 years you just have thousands of volunteers and not a good command structure. apparently, it takes 20 years to develop a captain.....


Sorry, you don't know what you are talking about here. It takes about 3-4 years to make a captain and a good solid non-commissioned officer. With sound non-commissioned leadership, basic training produces soldiers in months. Some of the advanced units of the Iraqi army should be just about there. Think of the expansion of the US Army from Dec 1941 to Aug 1945... 4 years

It takes about 20 years to develop a first sargeant and a colonel but first they can work on battalion level leadership and tactics.

[humint]

[EXCERPT] To put it differently, are enough Iraqis willing to risk their lives in order to try to preserve the precious gift we have given them? The answer is certainly NOT if they think they would simply be throwing their lives away in a cause that is already lost. But if they think they have a decent fighting chance, how many of them are willing to fight to preserve the opportunity we have given them? Personal Conclusion: I do not know if enough Iraqis have what it takes, and I doubt that anyone else knows the answer to that either. But they MIGHT. As long as that possibility exists, I think President Bush is right to do everything in his power to give them a decent fighting chance.

Excellent essay. Questions like these can make what is being ignored today as intangible and immeasurable - both tangible and measurable tomorrow. The reality of it is that people like you and I have to ask these questions and only Iraqis can answer them. There is a signifigant gap between us and them but for those of us who are paying close attention - in a great number of instances accross Iraq - the United States Army has bridged the gap. The men and women who show their kindness and sense of justice has touched the hearts of many Iraqi. But how could we know that when the media both here and there strives to be nothing more than an obituary? We have to get our information from CENTCOM to approach the necessary balance required to formulate any kind of faith in the future. That's a scary thought because of how much trust one must give to an organization who answers directly to the POTUS. It's not that I do not trust the POTUS, it's that the founding fathers established freedom of the press as sacrosanct so that Americans would not have to trust the POTUS.

What a predicament we are in! In a world where our commercial culture and constant promises to each other of instant gratification, we are inadvertently spreading the disease of Attention Deficit Disorder. No one is more complicit in the crime than the "if it bleeds, it leads" MSM, but like it or not, the media is a reflection of what we want to watch which is our current culture. It takes a brave soul like yourself to seek out Iraqis who have faith in the future of their country, a country that could not have freely elected a parliament only a few years ago.

Here's an abstract analogy for you based on the book, flatland. Imagine that the popular belief in America is that the world is flat. For all practical purposed it is flat so it should be hard to believe. Now imagine that every day on the news the idea was of "flatness" affirmed over and over again. And then one day it became essential to the sustainability of the United States that we all believe the world is not flat, but instead a sphere. The argument for "sphereness" does not approach the arguments for "flatness". Believers in "sphere theory" are ridiculed as neocon idealists, but remember, this theory is not a luxury. Failure to grasp the subtle reality could cost more than Americans can afford. Now imagine that one man, an important but not particularly articulate man, demands that we all understand "the world is a sphere". In his modesty, he does not ridicule those who subscribe to "flat theory". In his modesty, he does not parade an army of lecturers out to preach "sphere theory" to Americans. So he takes the abuse, hoping that one day an epiphany will occur in the minds of his countrymen. That one day they too will see the world as he does and thereby save themselves.

The fact that what GWB has asked Americans to understand the old world threatens us all and believe in a new world that has the potential to save us all makes him a heroic figure. It is utterly tragic that this brand of leadership is almost never recognized within the same generation as the leader. Beyond the abstract, I can't fully articulate why I see it now and others can't. Maybe it's because I like to read books like flatland.

[EternalHope]

Flatland. I was old enough to understand the dimensional concepts, but not old enough to understand the satire when I read it. Long ago.

I see the analogy.

For now, I see through a glass but darkly. But I see enough to see the tragedy. And consequences beyond imagining.

(Well said post, good points. Especially those regarding GWB.)

[greasepaint]

Well said.
I want US troops off the streets. Now.
The US can play a supporting role.

[ClaireSolt]

Sorry, I may have made a mistake on rank, but I am not convinced you understand the challenge of the organization and leadership. You are probably some populist who think all you need is workers.

[ClaireSolt]

Hold on. It looks like they are trying to crack a Hezbollah=like manipulation of the news about Iraq. The picture they have been painting has made no sense. It was false and all about politics.

As for the flatland story, the moral is that you know that happens so you believe none of what you hear and only half of what you see, as the saying goes.

[sgtyork]

As a 10 year army veteran who thrilled to the organizational change that was the Reagan military and remains proud of being a part of winning the Cold War, I believe I have an acute and experiential understanding of organization and leadership. I saw the Carter army -- hollowed out, populated by marginal soldiers, going through the motions!!! led to excellence, professionalism and eagerness by leadership.

Having been a company commander (as a Captain) I believe I have significantly more understanding of that leadership which is employed when tearing a civilian down and rebuilding him as a soldier than you do.

You probably do not encounter reporting from Iraq such as this today on Townhall.....
The plan to pacify these forces is the same as that for pacifying the country as a whole and drawing down U.S. troops—continuing to turn over more responsibilities and more geographic area to the Iraqi army and police. And in Ramadi, the transfers seem to be working. The Iraqi Army 1st Brigade, 7th Division (1/7) and the Iraqi Army 1/1, the oldest Iraqi Army unit in the country and considered by many to be the best, are capable – as I've witnessed – of defending themselves and counterattacking.

http://townhall.com/columnists/MichaelFumento/2006/11/30/ramadi_success_shows_insurgents_can_be_beaten


You avoided addressing the historical fact that the US Army went from a very small, ill equipped Army in 1941 to a MASSIVE, seasoned, WINNING fighting force by 1945.

I am not exactly sure what your allusion to populism and workers means especially in reference to warfighting. As a graduate of the US Army Command and General Staff College with modules on force development, it may be that you and I are just not on a level playing field when discussing how quickly a proficient Iraqi military force can be fielded.

[ClaireSolt]

With respect to your historical allusion, I don't know how you think it is similar to Iraq. It is true that there was a small army but it was not anything like Sadaam's army. It was a sucessful institution that was able to expand and rise to the occasion. My father was drafted. He was a college educated entrepreneur not an illiterate scardy cat traumatized by 40 years of tyranny. Most important, of course, the Mexicans did not send suicide bombers against Fort Sam Huston during his training. As we have a reliable PO and banking system the army was able to pay my father and he supported his family without having to hand carry his pay from Europe home every month. Those are some differenes I see.

[sgtyork]

.....how you think it is similar to Iraq....

Its simply the mechanics of manpower and forcebuilding driven by leadership. Some eastern nations have gotten it when guided by western forces (think ghurkas, turks, and south koreans).

...illiterate scardy cat traumatized by 40 years of tyranny...

A reasonable point, however consider that fully one third of soldiers entering the army at the beginning of world war II were undernourished, traumatized by the Great Depression.

.....My father was drafted.....

Having seen the drafted US Army of the late 70s vs. the volunteer army of the eighties, I consider it an astonishing miracle that an effective force was fielded with US draftees. Of course those were the days of the first sargeant being the baddest ass in the company enforcing discipline sometimes with significant physical punishment there was even execution for crimes or desertion. Consider the European theater

.....tried by court-martial, and sentenced to the stockade or, in the case of rape or murder, to death by firing squad. Sixty-five men were ordered shot. Eisenhower had to pass the final judgment. In sixteen cases he changed the sentence to life in the stockade; forty-nine men were shot. ....

http://www.worldwar2history.info/Army/deserters.html


As opposed to draftees (which sometimes include the very dregs of society), consider the words of a free Iraqi voluntarily serving his country..

Five years ago, Hadi said he was forced to serve as a soldier under Saddam Hussein’s regime – a stark contrast from the all-volunteer Iraqi Army of today, he said.

“If Sadaam said ‘you will fight,’ then you had to fight or he would cut off your fingers,” said Hadi.

Hadi said he was glad when Sadaam’s rule collapsed. He made very little money in the Army while having to provide for his children. He juggled his stint in the Army with another job to make ends meet.

“I am proud to be a soldier now,” said Hadi, who volunteered to enlist in the new Iraqi Army to transform the war-torn streets of local neighborhoods to a place where even his children could be safe.

so to use your own words ........ """"not anything like Sadaam's army""""

http://www.usmc.mil/marinelink/mcn2000.nsf/main5/2BE8072551440C468525714F005E2238?opendocument

...the Mexicans did not send suicide bombers against Fort Sam Huston during his training...

So you think your father would have shown less interest in defending the country if you and your family were in danger from foreign forces?


Those are some differenes I see.

[ClaireSolt]

No< I just think Iraq is a tougher enviornment in lots of ways not the least of which is that Maliki is no FDR, as far as I can tell.

[sgtyork]

Maliki is no FDR, as far as I can tell.

Yes, that is a terrible criticism, you are really spot on with that.

He is not FDR. Nor Churchill, nor Reagan. And that is clearly sound reason to say that the Iraqi Army cannot be made effective.

[RFEngineer]

" What will it take for the Iraqi military to be "ready"? "


We know a Trillion dollars and the ultimate mentors in the US military won't do it. Therefore, it is impossible in our time.

Maybe in 150 years, plus or minus.

[votelife]

I see through a glass but darkly

this sounds like 1 Corinthians...till we have faces and the veil is lifted?

Also, see CS Lewis, Till we have faces!