Posted on 12/01/2006 8:49:30 PM PST by InvisibleChurch
This man should retire. Housing will fair far better without him IMO.
Paging ex-texan! LOL!
Greenspan is smoking sumthin'
I thought he DID retire.....
The housing market is starting to turn the corner. Demand seems to be increasing and supply has leveled off. Prices should be flat for a while then start to turn up again early next year.
I wonder what interest rates on a fixed 15 year mortgage are. It might be worthwhile for me to refinance.
Your screen name reminds me of this slate plaque I bought for Mrs. Wasp. It says:"When I married Mr. Right, I didn't know his first name was Always!"
I'm in suburban Washington DC. We hear nothing but doom and gloom here--but two weeks ago a neighbor of mine put his house on the market for waaaay more than anybody else would have dreamed of, and it sold in a week. Despite the fact that few people want to buy at Christmastime. I hope this is a harbinger of good things to come in the spring.
Housing has barely started its crash. Prices won't bottom out until 2008 or 2009.
"Housing has barely started its crash. Prices won't bottom out until 2008 or 2009."
Given the comparison between your supporting reasons (none), and Greenspan's--I'll go with Greenspan.
The US economy performed very well during his tenure...and his successor seems to be following similar policies. It has absorbed 9/11/2001, two wars, Katrina, recent slowdowns in housing and autos; yet continues to grow.
The real estate market is local, as well as regional and national. If a particular locale or region is bottoming out in 2008 or 2009 it will be due more to local factors, than to national ones.
If I'm wrong and you are right, we will have more problems with our economy than just housing. Therefore I expect the Fed to keep interest rates as low as possible, and that was a big factor giving the strength of the economy under Greenspan.
Besides, low interest rates are GOOD just like low taxes are GOOD.
this is the official signal.
the Fed will begin to ease at the next meeting.
Ha! You beat me to it!
He also incinerated the dollar. The Euro is now $1.30 or so. It was less than $1.00 when he started trashing the dollar.
You're right that no one knows for sure when housing will bottom out, but its absurd to say that prices are on their way up. Just look at inventories, the amount of ARM's that will reset over the next two years, and the house price to income ratios, which are at totally unsustainable levels. We haven't seen anything yet.
They won't even be able to build enough houses in the DC area in the next 10 years to keep up with the incredible demand that is coming here. How does that enter into you figures?
Greenspan also helped keep inflation at bay....give the guy some credit.
The national numbers are not looking good short term. Many local markets will rebound/stabilize by this spring IMO. 2009 is quite a dire prediction, I'd like to hear your rationale.
One rationale for Neanderthal's dire prediction could be based on the fact that in the past, most real estate markets rose and fell on ten year cycles, or 5 year drops followed by 5 year surges. The great news is that the surges almost always dwarf the drops by at least a 3:2 margin, which have created a 45% upward tilt in property values since WW2.
I think the next growth period will buck the 5 year drop trend, and will come sometime mid to late 2007, fueled by retiring baby boomers, who are only starting to retire.
Said President Hoover 1930
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