Housing has barely started its crash. Prices won't bottom out until 2008 or 2009.
"Housing has barely started its crash. Prices won't bottom out until 2008 or 2009."
Given the comparison between your supporting reasons (none), and Greenspan's--I'll go with Greenspan.
The US economy performed very well during his tenure...and his successor seems to be following similar policies. It has absorbed 9/11/2001, two wars, Katrina, recent slowdowns in housing and autos; yet continues to grow.
The real estate market is local, as well as regional and national. If a particular locale or region is bottoming out in 2008 or 2009 it will be due more to local factors, than to national ones.
If I'm wrong and you are right, we will have more problems with our economy than just housing. Therefore I expect the Fed to keep interest rates as low as possible, and that was a big factor giving the strength of the economy under Greenspan.
Besides, low interest rates are GOOD just like low taxes are GOOD.
The national numbers are not looking good short term. Many local markets will rebound/stabilize by this spring IMO. 2009 is quite a dire prediction, I'd like to hear your rationale.
Bookmarked stupid prediction for later reference.
Is that across the board, or in a specific area/s?
You DO know, don't you, that there has never been and is not now, an across the board housing price in America.