An Economic Pillar on the Verge of Collapse

Washington Post ^ | December 6, 2006 | Steven Pearlstein

[GodGunsGuts]

An Economic Pillar on the Verge of Collapse

By Steven Pearlstein Wednesday, December 6, 2006; D01

It's been more than a year since we've heard from those who denied there was a housing bubble.

Since then, the industry boosters, along with the "soft-landing" crowd over at the Federal Reserve, have coalesced around the idea that maybe the market got a bit frothy after all, but now the correction is almost complete, the unsold inventory's been worked off and the worst is behind us.

But just when you're feeling hopeful again, you get reports like yesterday's Wall Street Journal piece reporting that delinquency rates are suddenly soaring on all those loosey-goosey subprime mortgages. They are starting to cause real heartburn for pension funds and other investors who bought securities backed by those mortgages on the theory that they were no more risky than a Treasury bond.

"We are a bit surprised by how fast this has unraveled," Thomas Zimmerman, head of asset-backed securities research at UBS, told the Journal, removing his head from the sand. Trust me, Tom, you ain't seen nothin' yet. After the subprime loans come the 100 percent, interest-only loans, followed by the meltdown in the overbuilt multi-family housing sector....

[djf]

"It's been more than a year since we've heard from those who denied there was a housing bubble."

Dude must not come to FR very often.

[Toddsterpatriot]

Look at and compare the last leg up in real private residential investment to the others.

Yeah, just ignore the huge tax change that took place in 1997.

[RobRoy]

>>We're doooooooooooooomed! <<

You may actually be right.

[GodGunsGuts]

Maybe we should disentangle the government from the GSEs. Right now, we are all on the hook to Fannie Mae to the tune of trillions...and we might end up bailing them out if foreclosures continue to rise:

http://www.heritage.org/Research/GovernmentReform/bg1861.cfm

[GodGunsGuts]

LOL

[RobRoy]

>>For those who fell for ARM Mortgage deals that were too good to be true.... they always are...... <<

Not true.

If you are the first in and sell before the pyramid reaches saturation, you make out like a bandit.

Of course, those that got in late and are still holding the bag, well, they just may take the whole economy down with them.

[Moonman62]

Looks like a steady trend to me with pullbacks that are progressively less severe.

[expat_panama]

"...compare the last leg up in real private residential investment to the other..."

What are we saying here-- that the bigger the leg up the bigger future maybe leg down, or that the bigger the leg up the better?

I like the second because it's easier to prove.  Besides, the graph contradicts that first idea.

[GodGunsGuts]

LOL. If I post articles from the MSM you cry "liberal", if I post from conservative blogs you cry "clowns" or "blogpimpery", and if I post from gold or bear sites you call it "gloomwhoring" or "goldbuggery." Gee, if I didn't know any better, I'd say your real problem is with the message, not the sources.

[Petronski]

Yeah, just ignore the huge tax change that took place in 1997.

Ignore hell. He's never heard of it. He's googling it up now.

[GodGunsGuts]

Generally speaking, that's true.

[tx_eggman]

WillieGreen, is that you?

[Paleo Conservative]

So it should be a great time to buy a house.

[twigs]

Are you a real estate agent?

[Toddsterpatriot]

Ignore hell. He's never heard of it. He's googling it up now.

He never did admit the magnitude of his double counting when pushing the "triple deficits". Maybe his google button is broken?

[Tijeras_Slim]

The first hit is free. But now you're a gloom junkie.

[RobRoy]

>>LOL. If I post articles from the MSM you cry "liberal", if I post from conservative blogs you cry "clowns" or "blogpimpery", and if I post from gold or bear sites you call it "gloomwhoring" or "goldbuggery." Gee, if I didn't know any better, I'd say your real problem is with the message, not the sources.<<

This is one reason I don't give people individual sources. There is a skeleton in EVERY closet. And to suggest that people with "agendas" don't have valid opinions is like saying a jew in late 1930's germany should be ignored when he comments on the nazis because he has an agenda.

I have learned so see if the words stand of their own strength.

[TX Bluebonnet]

LOL! I love Mr. Housing Bubble!

[Toddsterpatriot]

if I post from conservative blogs you cry "clowns" or "blogpimpery"

Are you claiming this stupid blog is conservative?

[GodGunsGuts]

Nope. I generally don't associate with people who have a connection to the name "Willie."