Posted on 12/10/2006 6:21:07 PM PST by SwinneySwitch
A new study throws cold water on a long-cherished claim of toll road advocates, surprising some of them, and could redefine a debate over if and how Texas should toll its highways.
For more than a year now, state officials have scared the dickens out of motorists by saying the gas tax would have to go up $1.20 a gallon to build all the roads needed statewide over the next quarter-century.
That would almost triple the 38.4 cents drivers now pay in federal and state fuel taxes. Since that's politically impossible to do, the argument goes, toll roads should be built wherever and whenever feasible.
But now a Texas Transportation Institute study says gas taxes wouldn't have to go up nearly as much.
Just indexing the gas tax to rising construction costs would be enough, the 139-page report says. The extra money could finance bonds through 2030 and pay them all off within five years after that.
Or, to avoid borrowing with bonds, the tax could be increased 12 cents in 2008 and indexed to construction inflation through 2030.
Even if the tax weren't indexed, a flat increase of only 39 cents a gallon would do the same — a far cry from the $1.20 that Texas Department of Transportation officials have maintained would be needed.
Toll critics embraced the news, saying it's proof TxDOT is pumping up numbers to justify toll roads.
"All of this is a charade to draw us into TxDOT's pointy-headed policy mindset that's obsessed with tolls and how to sell the public on it," said David Ramos of San Antonio Toll Party. "The bottom line is TxDOT is trying to create a crisis to justify their money grab."
Toll advocates were caught off guard when the TTI study was recently presented to the Legislature's Study Commission on Transportation Financing.
"That report was a surprise," said Ted Houghton, a Texas Transportation Commission member from El Paso who serves on the study commission. "It wasn't on the agenda and no one had any time to read it. So we're going through it and working on the assumptions."
The report, done for the Governor's Business Council, differs from TxDOT's assumptions in three key areas, said Michael Stevens, a Houston developer who's a member of both the Business Council and the transportation study commission.
TxDOT failed to account for how much tax revenues would go up over the 25 years from increased driving, he said, and overestimated unfunded needs for state roads by $8 billion.
And, when calculating the funding gap, TxDOT added an estimated $22 billion for local streets in the eight largest cities, though the state has no responsibility for such roads.
The study concluded that a bloated $86 billion in unfunded needs espoused by TxDOT is actually just $56 billion.
"These numbers are pretty tight," Stevens said. "We study it like we study our businesses. Before we published it, because we knew it was so different, we did a large amount of due diligence on it."
That included meeting with TxDOT and the governor's office after a draft quietly came out in September, he said.
Houghton said TxDOT is poring over the report and could respond next week.
State officials might question estimates for construction inflation, which is rising faster than consumer inflation.
Road building costs in Texas went up 33 percent last year because of higher fuel costs and increased global competition for asphalt, concrete and steel.
The study predicts construction inflation will go up just 3.4 percent a year.
Other issues could involve whether costs such as road maintenance were included.
Also, Houghton said indexing the gas tax to construction inflation could cause the tax go up faster than many realize — rising to 84.4 cents a gallon by 2030 or even a $1 or more, depending on the scenario — and would hit poor people the hardest.
"It's the most regressive tax there is," he said.
While the study doesn't recommend scrapping statewide toll plans, it does say toll dollars should stay in local areas and that the gas tax should be indexed to inflation to finance bonds.
It also calls for an end to diverting gas tax revenues to non-transportation uses.
Indexing the gas tax likely would mean fewer roads would need to be tolled, said Rep. Mike Krusee, R-Round Rock, who chairs the House Transportation Committee and co-chairs the legislative study commission.
But a bill he filed last year to index the tax to consumer inflation was killed. He said he'll try again when the Legislature meets in January, and may consider tying the tax to faster-rising construction costs.
The legislative study commission also will offer ideas, but a report will be held off at least another month while members mull the TTI gas-tax study.
"The study has thrown a kink into the process," Krusee said.
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pdriscoll@express-news.net
Texas should move ahead with every idea to remove roads from the control of the government.
From what I'm hearing from truck drivers, there won't be many trucks on it at 58 cents per mile. That's more than many drivers make.
why?
The state of washington is looking at putting transponders in cars so to charge per mile driven. It's just a matter of time before that happens everywhere else on public roads.
Everybody's liberty is advanced through private ownership and control of all resources and goods.
"gas tax would have to go up $1.20 a gallon to build all the roads needed statewide"
Right, 'cause there is not a single penny of spending that could be reduced in the budget...
"It's the most regressive tax there is," he said. Why? Do the poorest people have the most vehicles? The largest vehicles? Drive the farthest? Take cross-country trips by automobile? What makes this tax more regressive than taxes on utilities or groceries? (I understand that Texas does not have the latter.)
Source, please!
So that's why the pesky little constitution has the interstate commerce clause in it. "Sac off"
How many Toyota Prius pimpmobiles have you seen?
Once a road is 'tolled' it never, ever, ever ends.
And btw the tolls never, ever, ever go down.
It'll be on more (most likely 'appointed') Government body with taxing authority.
Here in IL we started out with one and they swore, oh how they swore, the tolls would be removed once construction costs were paid off.
Well the last bonds were paid off over a decade ago and guess what. The tolls are still there.
To add insult to injury one is actually charged extra if one pays the tolls in cash instead of with one of those little 'prepaid' transponder devices.
Vote this one down.
Vote out any politician who voices approval for this boondoggle.
L
About as many as I have seen Cadillac Escallade pimpmobiles.
There's a stretch of I 95 at Richmond that was toll, but is now free.
Good for you Richmond.
L
The "interstate commerce clause" is written to restrict the power of states to control commerce.
Gee, just a 39 cents increase in the gas tax. So instead of $2.17 per gallon we would ALL be forced to pay $2.56 per gallon, instead of only those who CHOOSE to use a toll road?
Forcing others to pay for what you want, isn't that usually the Democrat's position?
But wait, it gets worse:
...when calculating the funding gap, TxDOT added an estimated $22 billion for local streets in the eight largest cities, though the state has no responsibility for such roads.
So instead of the toll roads paying for new connections and improvements to the existing roads leading to the tollroads/freeways (including local feeder roads), that cost would be handled by local municipalities. That doesn't reduce the cost, it just shifts it back to the local governments, it still has to be paid. So actually the cost is indeed higher than 39 cents per gallon, but in property or sales tax increases instead.
State officials might question estimates for construction inflation, which is rising faster than consumer inflation. Road building costs in Texas went up 33 percent last year because of higher fuel costs and increased global competition for asphalt, concrete and steel.
Ummm, doubling the gas tax would result in higher fuel costs, and thus higher road building costs.
The study predicts construction inflation will go up just 3.4 percent a year.
While it is likely that the huge jump in costs last year was higher than normal and won't continue at that rate, just 3.4%? China and India aren't in recession, and they are going gangbusters to upgrade their infrastructure, including roads. Supply and demand isn't going away. Also doubtful that there won't be future spikes and higher plateau's in the cost of oil.
Just indexing the gas tax to rising construction costs would be enough
Fine, but indexing is just an automatic tax increase each year by varying amounts. The taxes still rise.
While the study doesn't recommend scrapping statewide toll plans, it does say toll dollars should stay in local areas and that the gas tax should be indexed to inflation to finance bonds.
Keeping it local is fine with me, but politically difficult because all the rural legislators (especially crooked Speaker Craddick) want urban areas to subsidize rural roads, because there just isn't enough traffic or population west of the Balcones Escarpment to pay for the needed but long and spread out roads.
It also calls for an end to diverting gas tax revenues to non-transportation uses.
I'm 100% behind this.
I thought making stuff up was the democrat's modus operandi?
Nope, apparently not just Dems, just read any of the anti-Rudy or anti-toll road spam.
Typical political speak; Advocate $1.20 increase when you are really after only .35 increase and the toothless masses are happy and joyful to only pay a .39 increase. A little horse trading trick.
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