Posted on 12/16/2006 9:28:43 AM PST by Alter Kaker
It won't happen here. Districts in Minnesota are drawn by a panel of judges. Iowa uses a similar system as well.
They were drawn by judges in 2002 because the Senate and House were split and couldn't agree on maps. If the Democrats hold both houses and win the governorship in 2010, they'll be drawing the maps when you lose a seat in Congress. But the damage they can do is limited, as the Twin Cities will sustain at least two conservative suburban districts and the Democrat districts (Iron Range, Twin Cities proper) are not growing in population.
I ran the numbers for 2010 based on the 2005 Census estimate, but don't have access to them right now. I recalled RI and MN being close to losing a seat. You're right that KS is near the cusp, and so is NE IIRC. And I thought LA was slated to lose a seat even before Katrina. I'll check my numbers tomorrow. Maybe AL can save that 7th seat.
I checked out my numbers, and the July 2005 U.S. Census population estimate indicated that AL had a population of 4,557,808, which, assuming the same percentage growth until April 1, 2010 that AL had from April 1, 2000 to July 1, 2005, means that AL's population on April 1, 2010 will be 4,657,745. In the case of LA, it's July 1, 2005 population (as per the Census estimate) was 4,523,628, and assuming the same percentage growth until April 1, 2010 that LA had from April 1, 2000 to July 1, 2005 (it will almost certainly be far lower or even negative due to Katrina, but I'm only looking at the Census numbers), LA's population on April 1, 2010 will be 4,573,091. According to the Census projections, LA will lose a House seat before AL will.
Looking at all 50 states, my numbers give me that the states that currently stand to lose House seats following the 2010 Census are:
IL (-1)
IA (-1)
LA (-1)
MA (-1)
MO (-1)
NY (-2)
OH (-2)
PA (-1)
States that are close to losing a House seat, but will likely make it past 2010 (only to almost certainly lose a seat in 2020) are (in order of danger of losing a seat):
MI
MN
AL
NE
RI
WV
(KS will easily keep its 4th CD through 2010 and, unless something drastic happens, through 2020.)
Here are the states that currently stand to gain House seats following the 2010 Census:
AZ (1)
CA (1)
FL (2)
GA (1)
NV (1)
TX (3)
UT (1)
The only other state close to gaining a House seat in 2010 (and an early frontrunner for 2020) is OR, although AZ could gain a second House seat if it further increases its rate of growth.
Udall's district is very heavily Dem except for the Clovis/Portales area. It includes the Navajo and Jicarilla Apache Indian Reservations and all of historic Hispanic northern NM where even after 150 years English is not the native language in lots of enclaves.
When people can’t win an election ....I guess the next best thing is to “Re-redistrict.” In my case “Re-redistricting is better than being dimissed and dislike...even physcially threatened.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.