Posted on 12/16/2006 9:28:43 AM PST by Alter Kaker
New Mexico Democrats, frustrated by their inability to defeat Rep. Heather Wilson (R-N.M.), now are openly talking about redrawing the state’s Congressional district boundaries prior to the 2008 elections.
(Excerpt) Read more at rollcall.com ...
Hey, maybe Republican lawmakers can flee to Texas to prevent a quorum.
Or would the Rats frown on such a tactic?
Too bad the constitution didn't make all House delegates "at large" throughout the state. Both sides play this redistricting game and it always adds up to the same thing: statewide majority-party incumbent protection.
Michigan alone could cost us six seats if the Dems are clever (the MI-6th, 7th, 8th, 9th, 10th and 11th ALL are potentially vulnerable)
Wilson won against a hapless Dem who basically promised to raise taxes -- by just 875 votes. Admittedly, it was a Democratic year, but the Dems only need to add 10,000 Dems to the district (a tiny number) to make it impossible for her to win a competitive race.
Dem gains in the Pennsylvania legislature are irrelevant for two reasons: (1) The GOP still controls the state senate by a 29 to 21 vote margin, and the state senate has to go along with any redistricting, so it's DOA in the Keystone State; (2) With their four seat gain in this past election the Dems have pretty much maximized their potential in Pennsylvania. Now, to be sure, they could redistrict Gerlach out of a seat, if they left themselves several quite marginal districts, but if they did redistrict Pennsylvania they would surely focus on shoring up the Altmire (PA-04), Carney (PA-10), and Holden (PA-17) districts. There are not enough Democrats to do that and also target additional GOP seats.
Beyond that, there are only five states - tops - where Dems control both chambers of the legislature and now have the governor's mansion where they might benefit from a re-redistricting. One is New Mexico. The others are:
Colorado: But again Dems have just about maximized their potential. If they re-redistrict they will look to make the Salazar (CO-03) and Perlmutter (CO-07) seats more secure long before they target the three remaining GOP seats.
Illinois: Again, they would first look to shore up Bean (IL-08) and there's really not much more they could pick up - two seats at best (one in the Chicago suburbs, by making Kirk's IL-10 more Dem and perhaps one downstate by sweeping together most of the Dems now distributed between IL-15 and IL-19). The leaders of state legislature and Governor Blagojevich have all said they aren't interested, though.
Louisiana: The Dems could give themselves a shot at a couple more seats if they really chop up the district lines, but Governor Blanco is hardly in the political position to do that and she will lose to Jindal next year.
West Virginia: The Dems could try to target Capito but they'd probably fail no matter how they redraw the map and might instead lose one of their own. And there's no sign of motivation to revisit the district lines.
And that's it. Everywhere else, the Dems either passed the current maps, or an independent commission draws lines, or there's still divided state government. So, there's really not much to worry about. Heather Wilson is it.
And there is no way the Dems could net themselves the lone GOP seat in Oregon..
What about Minnesota, Oregon and Wisconsin?
That's why I said she is already at a disadvantage. It won't take much to tip the district to the D side.
All the other areas that are conservative are drowned in blue in the Northern district, which includes Santa Fee and a bunch of Indian reservations.
No, you definitely require both chambers of the General Assembly in Pennsylvania. Jubelirer of Vieth v Jubelirer fame (the SCOTUS case on the PA gerrymander) was a state senator BTW.
Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Oregon also require both chambers to approve a congressional redistricting. Oh, and to reiterate, Governor Pawlenty of Minnesota is still a Republican, and must sign off on any redistricting, and there is no chance the Oregon Dems could redistrict their lone Republican congress critter, Greg Walden (OR-04), out of office.
Correction: Greg Walden is OR-02, not OR-04, which is DeFazio. And, speaking of DeFazio, that is actually a toss up district (49.1% Bush in '04 v 49.4% Kerry) and Hooley's OR-05 is too (50.1% Bush in '04 v 48.8% Kerry) so it's not as if the Oregon Dems have much leeway to play. The OR-01 seat too is only 54% Dem.
Why don't we just start calling it, "Gerry-pandering?"
Isn't it amazing how the election results this year changed the redistricting potential in exactly zero states, as far as I can tell?
You're probably right on the states in question.
I'm sure the NM Dems go after Wilson; it's in their blood. But that whole area has such a history of voting in an independent manner (even though mainly registered Dem), and the Dems have a history of nominating the wrong candidates, that knowing Democrats' historic luck in NM-01, it'll probably fail. I mean, I really can't see a more favorable year for NM Dems in the next 30-40 years than 2006, and they still couldn't get rid of the Republican. I'm sure they could find a better candidate, but he'll probably never get the nomination.
Besides, trading part of Valencia County for Torrance County is not that huge of a change, all told. It's not like they're trying to redistrict Wilson out of her CD or get rid of her part of Albequerque or something (which would screw with Udall's CD, which is not that Dem).
You're probably right, but there's no reason to think the Chicago inner city Dems are willing to give up their safe seats now when they emphatically would not in 2001. So, the collar counties basically involve five GOP districts (IL-06, IL-08, IL-10, IL-11, IL-13 - that's Roskam, Bean, Kirk, Weller, and Biggert). As I noted, the first priority would be to make IL-08 a true Dem seat, and after that they need to pull another seat out of what's left of IL-10, IL-06, and IL-13. I assumed that IL-11 would be out of play because it would also be involved in crafting another Dem seat out of (primarily) IL-15 and IL-19.
I think you'd end up with Kirk and Roskam combined and with Shimkus and Johnson combined. The new eastern Illinois IL-15 seat would probably be a Toss Up, and it'd be something of a mirror image to IL-17 in western Illinois, picking up Dem precincts all the way from Joliet in IL-11 in the north to Paducah in IL-19 in the south. Then you'd have a new Dem district essentially like an arc along the western suburbs of Chicago. IL-08 would pick up the waterfront from IL-10 and Wheaton from IL-06. I suspect that would all work out. The odd men out would probably be Roskam and Tim Johnson.
We'll have to see if this actually happens. Talk is cheap and Bill Richardson doesn't want to taint his record by being really partisan. He has presidential aspirations and trying to re-district.
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