[xzins]

Negroponte is no second fiddle. This is intentional.

What's the likelihood that Condi Rice will leave State for some reason: (1) to preserve her reputation since State is in a shambles, (2) to take a job she's always wanted more, (3) to enter the presidential "officially not running but draftable" sweepstakes?

[section9]

Condi Rice isn't leaving State. The people who are angry with her are the extreme Left who hate Bush anyway and the extreme Right, who want an invasion of Persia right now, dagnabbit. Negroponte's arrival actually strengthens her hand. Now I know why she didn't fill the Zoellick job. She knew that Negroponte was going to be available after the new year.

Khalizad may get the UN job, but I'd rather see him back at DC too. He's done a super job in Baghdad.

All of this, all of this, is about two things: stamping down on the insurgents in Iraq and, of even greater importance, determining whether or not the Iranians are on the verge of weaponizing fisson-grade atomics that can be mounted on IRBM's. The second is of great importance because the Iranians intend to target European Cities in addition to Israel.

The greatest problem is the apparent incompetence of the CIA. We got our network rolled up by the Revolutionary Guards back in the Clinton era. Now the only people who have any info that we trust, afaik, are the Izzies, and I don't know how far Bush actually trusts them. Hopefully, I'm wrong and we have better information, but the history of American intellence achievements since the Bay of Pigs doesn't give me much hope.

A final note: MI-6 may have assets in Iran. That's the only other outfit I would trust. I think we're blind, except for the satellites, the SIGINT, and what our SF people who go in-country find now and again.

Be Seeing You,

Chris