[AmishDude]

No, I did remember Garfield, but I think we really have to start our analysis of presidential campaigns after the advent of radio, at the least.

I'm glad you asked for my prediction. First, there are a couple of candidates that have an outside shot, Thompson and Brownback. At least they have the resume, but don't really have support. I don't imagine anybody winning any primary other than those 5. I think even Newt won't win one.

My preference of the "Big Three" is Mitt. I think McCain is dangerous. He's (1) ancient, (2) mean and (3) insane. Rudy has far too many personality quirks that make me not want him in the presidency. He has this tendency to be unreasonably stubborn and to support people and ideas based on little evidence. (See Kerik) He will tend not to oppose whatever the latest cultural nonsense is and will not spend political capital on things like tax cuts and judges. I also think Mitt will be more appealing to conservatives than he appears now on this board.

I think McCain will win Iowa. He has a great organization and the caucus voters tend to respond to that sort of thing. And just judging by the behavior of Iowa voters, I think that they prefer stability.

Mitt is likely to win NH based on the fact that he's known in the region and NH voters go against conventional wisdom. At that point, Rudy's donations will dry up. The question is, can McCain repair enough burned bridges and cover his problems with age and rage to win? Will Romney be unable to wrest it from him?

I just don't see how Rudy can win many primaries. He doesn't have a broad organization and he doesn't appeal to doctrinaire conservatives. He does have name recognition now, and Mitt will have to work hard overcoming that deficiency.

It's hard to predict now, but unless McCain stumbles or has medical problems, I don't see how he will fail to win.

Unfortunately.

[Torie]

Good analysis. I think the big three each have about as much chance as the other. The standard deviation out there is high, very high. I give Thompson and Brownback a zero chance. Have you ever heard Brownback speak?

[Torie]

I agree with you that Rudy has to win NH to stay alive. I suspect he is the favorite there, certainly not Mitt, and probably not McCain, although a NH poll would be nice. The campaign will sort things out in a hurry.

[Kuksool]

Here's my take on the White House contenders.

McCain will implode after the primaries. He is so used to media fawning that he doesn't know how to handle criticism.

A McCain vs Obama will be a redux of Brown vs DeWine.

Rudy is indistinguishable from a liberal RAT on social issues. With Rudy's past marital troubles, Obama could claim moral superiority over Rudy.The media will say nothing bad at all about Obama. The media will even claim that Obama is a moderate or even conservative RAT. Fair and balanced media means 90% favorable stories for Obama and only 50% favorable for Rudy.

Rudy vs Obama will be a redux of Corker vs Ford. The critical swing group in the election would be the GOP primary voters who did not vote for Rudy.

Mitt is a wildcard candidate. He's best looking and most articulate of the bunch. He could either win narrowly or lose in a landslide.