Emerging details of a troop surge, expected to be confirmed by U.S. President George W. Bush's prime-time press conference Jan. 10, indicate some 16,000 extra U.S. troops will eventually reinforce Baghdad, with another 4,000 in Anbar province. This surge is almost certain to entail a shift in tactics consistent with the recently published Counterinsurgency Manual (FM 3-24). These tactics involve increased visibility for U.S. troops and will -- at least at the beginning -- entail higher casualties. But the surge is not fundamentally driven by military concerns; the choice to surge and the timing are largely politically motivated.
Some details of the surge are evident from looking at current troop deployments. The 2nd Brigade Combat Team (BCT) of the 82nd Airborne Division is now arriving in Kuwait to serve as a force in reserve. They will likely be the first additional unit surged north -- once again leaving U.S. forces in Iraq without a brigade-size reserve force. The U.S. Marine 5th and 7th Regimental Combat Teams (RCT) currently operating in Anbar are likely to be held over past their scheduled departure from Iraq in February. The U.S. Army 3rd Battalion, 509th Infantry Regiment (Airborne) has already moved into Anbar to reinforce the 5th RCT and conduct operations in the Al Karmah region, northeast of Al Fallujah. Many foreign fighters who escaped the dual assaults on Al Fallujah in 2004 sought refuge in Al Karmah.
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