John McCain relaxes on the beach
Posted on 01/18/2007 11:26:08 AM PST by PDR
As Mitt, Hillary, Barack and a dozen others jump into the presidential stampede, something interesting is happening in New Hampshire.
For seven years, conventional wisdom has said that the state’s pivotal independent voters would line up behind maverick Sen. John McCain, as they did so famously in the 2000 GOP primary. But new polling data, to be released later this week, will suggest that might no longer be the case.
Manchester, N.H.-based American Research Group finds that McCain’s popularity among New Hampshire’s independent voters has collapsed.
“John McCain is tanking,” says ARG president Dick Bennett. “That’s the big thing [we’re finding]. In New Hampshire a year ago he got 49 percent among independent voters. That number’s way down, to 29 percent now.”
American Research Group, which is New Hampshire’s leading polling company and has been operating in the state since 1976, polled 1,200 likely Granite State voters in the survey.
Bennett says ARG is finding a similar trend in other states polled, including early primary battlegrounds like Iowa and Nevada. “We’re finding this everywhere,” he says.
The main reason isn’t hard to find: His hawkish stance on the Iraq war, which is tying him ever more closely to an unpopular president. “Independent support for McCain is evaporating because they view him as tied to Bush,” says Bennett.
The McCain camp yesterday said the senator, who is pushing for a bigger troop surge in Iraq than the president, will stick by his guns. “He has been and will remain committed to achieving victory in Iraq,” a spokesman said.
New Hampshire is among the states that allow independents to vote in either party’s primary. It was their support that gave McCain his huge primary victory there over then-Texas Gov. George W. Bush in 2000.
If the senator is losing that base, it opens the GOP race to other challengers. And it weakens his strongest pitch to Republican die-hards - namely that his appeal to independents makes him the most electable candidate in the general election.
“It’s significant that McCain is going down rather than up at this critical juncture in the early maneuvering,” comments Larry Sabato, who chairs the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics. “It suggests that, contrary to conventional wisdom, John McCain may not be secure as the GOP front-runner. But a lot can change.”
The big question for 2008: Where will all those independents end up?
Mitt Romney could have made a strong pitch to them if he weren’t instead running to the right. ARG’s poll finds some like Rudy Giuliani. Others, switching sides, are warming to Democratic Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois.
But most are now up for grabs.
Best news of the day.
Best news of the day.
I wonder who's piucking up his numbers.
Those "independents" are what they always were: Lieburrall left-leaning weasel Democrats without the label.
This is a nothing burger when examined at least as regards the nomination. The poll is speaking of "independents" hence means nothing when it comes to the primary.
And where have those voters turned to?
Funny that the Boston Globe Retractor (as Jay Severin refers to it) does not mention in the article that McCain still LEADS in NH. Next highest is Giuliani, at 25%.
Here is the link:
http://americanresearchgroup.com/
but McCain cannot win New Hampshire in a competitive field without the votes of independents -- they were the bulk of his support in 2000. If he finishes third or below in New Hampshire (not predicting he will - just giving an analysis) its over for him and a whole new race for the GOP.
Don't forget that many states now allow independents to vote across party lines. It is a good indication that McCain's popularity is waning. People are not going to forget McCain-Feingold or the "Gang of 14". He has made some strong enemies.
After all these years stabbing the President in the back to curry favor with the press and independents, he tanks.. What a fitting end to this guys political career. He ends stabbing the independents and the Pubbie base. Sweet justice.
The main reason isn’t hard to find: His hawkish stance on the Iraq war, which is tying him ever more closely to an unpopular president. “Independent support for McCain is evaporating because they view him as tied to Bush,” says Bennett.
Oh great, so now the pro-defeat in Iraq candidates among the GOP will become the front runners, like Hagel and Brownback because even GOP voters are drinking the Koolaid that America which has worked miracles can't somehow overcome 10,000 primitives in Iraq. I'm not a fan of McCain and am not planning on supporting him. That's not my point. My point is that candidates who are responsible rather than putting their fingers to the wind on Iraq are losing support within the GOP. So I've already given up on America as being hopelessly stupid, naive and deceived. I guess I can do the same with the GOP now too.
If we nominate that dunce RINO mental patient Hagle, I give up.
Personally I'm going to keep the faith and will chalk this up to media spin, that McCain isn't losing among Republicans because he's too conservative and too pro-Bush, but because he's been too liberal and enjoyed tweaking Bush a few too many times. Only the media spinmeisters could look at McCain who they once called a "maverick" and now claim he's too pro-Bush. Spare me. Only the Alice in Wonderland media could come up with that one, especially when one considers Bush is not unpopular within the GOP.
I am not sure about NH's voting requirements but the question still is who would they turn to if they don't like McCain's Iraq stance? Guiliani? He has the same stance. Romney? Not clear what his stance is on Iraq.
Is there any Republican running who is anti-war.
See #13.
Oh, and I don't believe either of those issues means anything to anyone but a few political junkies. MF is completely irrelevant to anything and has been shown to have no impact worth worrying about. The "Gang" got some judicial nominees confirmed who might NOT have been so that one will carry no weight either.
You have to remember that most voters are lucky to be able to name the candidates they pay so little attention to events.
Right, the article is talking about Independents.
McCain's drop in popularity has less to do with his war position than his disdain for the First Amendment.
Nonsense. Congress is explicitly empowered to regulate federal elections.
What is nonsense? That McCain holds disdain for the First Amendment?
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