the polls have him winning in NJ, PA, NY and CT. I think he'd win all 4 against anyone but Hillary, and even then it would be close, a lot closer than any other candidate. don't underestimate the italian factor in states like NJ, RI, CT, PA and NY.
By comparison, Mitt Romney is getting blown out 57-32 by Barack Obama in MA. His home state. For reference, no one has won the WH and lost their home state since Wilson in 1916, and he's the only one in the last 150 years. So in a state where he was the Governor for 4 years, he get's almost doubled up by a guy that could walk into Fanueil Hall unrecognized a few months ago and has been in the Senate all of two years. If Mitt is that far behind in MA, where he was fairly unpopular by the end of his term, it's not a good sign.
We can decide to fall on our sword and go with a Goldwater ideological purity and suffer the consequences. As it stands right now, Rudy and McCain are the only 2 GOP candidates I can see giving us a chance. Things can change, and I hope they do, and that's what the primaries are for.
But, if Rudy or McCain does win the primaries, I'd hate to see a repeat of '92 and have a bunch of holier than thou types prove thir point by giving us eight more years of Bill and Hillary Clinton in the White House, to be almost guaranteed by 8 years of Barack and Michele Obama.
I'd hope that once the general rolls around, we remember the 11th Commandment and ask ourselves WWRD? Would he stay home and put Bill and Hillary back in power?
The point is,
Your analysis is very pragmatic and probably accurate. It's going to come down to either McCain or Giuliani. The media will bust their humps to get McCain the nomination, but if he gets it they'll turn on him in a heartbeat and savage him right up to the election against either Hillary or Hussein Obama. Unfortunately, I just don't see any of the other 'Pub candidates having much of a chance. Romney might crack 40% in the general election against Hillary, maybe 35% against Obama, so it's 1964 all over again. The others? Brownback loses maybe 35-65 against the top two 'Rats. Duncan Hunter? Maybe 30%. Gingrich? The media will dig up so many skeletons from his past that he'd be forced to relinquish the nomination, if he ever got it. I just don't think we have the horses in '08 to make a race of it against either Hillary or Obamalama outside of Giuliani/McCain. I know many here will hate to hear that and want to flame me for saying it, but I'm only offering a preliminary sizing up, and, to be honest, those choices don't make me all that happy either. But faced with the prospect of a Hillary or Obama presidency, I question whether staying home is a good idea, either.