"What If All the Ice Melts?" Myths and Realities

Johnston Archive ^ | 12/29/2005 | Wm. Robert Johnston

[TigersEye]

Antarctic Ice Sheet Mass Balance (yep, it's growing)

[highlander_UW]

On the polar plateau, temperature is controlled by solar input, latitude and altitude. The annual average temperature is -50°C (-58°F). Winter temperatures drop quickly, then level out. Summer is short, from mid-December to mid-January, however, temperatures can reach a balmy -30°C (-22°F)! source: http://www.antarcticconnection.com/antarctic/weather/climate.shtml

With the average annual temperature in Antarctica hanging around -58 degrees F it's going to take quite a long time to get up to the point of actually melting given the cries of the global warming enthusiasts is that our temperature has gone up something like a degree over the last half century or decade (or whatever they're claiming this week).

[EQAndyBuzz]

"Why is it called Greenland?"

When the first map was created, the mapmaker had Greenland and Iceland confused.

Apparently this persons heir later worked for the Gore campaign in Florida and was the reason for the butterfly ballot fiasco.

[William Terrell]

. . .since most people live on the coast.

Most people live on the coast?

[curiosity]

Most people live on the coast?

Yes, most of the world's population lives on the coast, and by that I mean within a relatively short distance of the ocean, something on the order of 100 miles, though I don't remember the exact number.

[William Terrell]

I think of the coast as being below 250 feet elevation, for the purposes of all the land based ice in the world melting.

[curiosity]

I would venture to say that perhaps not a majority, but a very large fraction of the world's population lives below 250 feet in elevation and near the coast.

Think about some of the world's largest cities: New York, Tokyo, Singapore, Shanghi, Hong Kong, etc, etc, etc.

[Prost1]

It looks like California, the largest exporter of food in the world, will become a waterski paradise. Just avoid the underwater obstacles.

[curiosity]

FYI:

"44% of the world's population (more people than inhabited the entire globe in 1950) live within 150 kilometres of the coast. In 2001 over half the world's population lived within 200km of a coastline... The United States has clearly mapped its population expansion. In the United States, around 53% of the population lives near the coast and since 1970 there have been 2000 homes per day erected in coastal areas."

Source:

http://www.oceansatlas.org/servlet/CDSServlet?status=ND0xODc3JmN0bl9pbmZvX3ZpZXdfc2l6ZT1jdG5faW5mb192aWV3X2Z1bGwmNj1lbiY1NT0yMSYzMz0qJjM3PWtvcw~~

Anyway, my point is, even if melting land ice only reduces the livable land mass by a small amount, it will still cause a huge displacement since such a large fraction of the population lives near the coast.

[William Terrell]

It won't matter how far people live from the coast; it matters what elevation they're occupying.

[curiosity]

Both matter. If you're living at a low elevation but far from the ocean, in some valley, you won't be affected.

The fact is most costal plains aren't very steep, so if you're living within 100 kilometers of the ocean, chances are you're also at a low elevation.

[William Terrell]

You might be surprised. We have 6 billion people on the planet. If as many as half of them lived in a coastal area, that would be 3 billion, I don't think the coasts are that populated, or there is even room for that many.

For instance Dothan, Alabama is 326 feet. I don't think (I'm no geographer) you have to go far inland from any given coast to move above 250 feet. Land masses tend to rise rapidly. Exceptions, of course, but the rule.

Florida would be toast. I think some adjustments would be necessary of the ice were to melt. The people living in the lower elevations would have to build house boats.

[curiosity]

You also have to remember that areas with larger economic importance would be disproportionately affected. New York City, Tokyo, Los Angeles, San Francisco, Houston, Singapore, Shanghi, Hong Kong, Sao Paolo, all major financial and economic centers, all at low costal elevations.

[William Terrell]

Yes. It would wreak global free trade. If only God would be so merciful. . .

[unixfox]

"What If All the Ice Melts?"

The diving should be really good!

[Gone_Postal]

The diving should be really good!

I hear that