Really? And how many interceptions does Manning have during the last three games? What's his quarterback rating vs. Grossman during the playoffs this year? I think you'll see at least 5 Indianapolis turnovers, three time-consuming Chicago drives, and Indianapolis slinking home with it's tail between it's legs after losing 24 to 10.
All this talk by the pundits reminds me of Super Bowl 35. Nobody gave Baltimore a chance, all defense and no offense isn't supposed to win anything. The Giants had Kerry Collins and Tiki Barber and were supposed to run roughshod over the Ravens. Well, 5 turnovers and 4 sacks later with Dilfer playing unexciting but mistake-free football, the Giants went home wondering what happened. Colts fans would do well to study history.
Something didn't ring true to me in your description of SB XXXV.So, I went and looked as anyone here is welcome to do.Any number of sources indicate the Ravens were 3-point favorites entering that game.So, I studied my history for this morning.
Want some recent history to explain those statistics?
Manning played against the #1, #2, #11, and #5 defenses since Christmas...
Grossman faced the #13 Saints, #19 Seahawks, and the #26 Packers. In fact, Rex hasn't faced a Top Twelve defense since November (adding the #29 Lions, #21 Buccaneers, #27 Rams, and the #14 Vikings)
Indy'd defense was ranked #22 for the regular season, but clearly their D has stepped up since the return of Bob Sanders, and with DT McFarland getting acclimated to his new team. They lost both starting DT's early this year to non-football injuries, and were playing our FIFTH string option, a rookie CB, at safety. Now that those huge gaps have been plugged, they're averaging 16 pts per playoff game, whch would put them at #4 in the NFL in the regular season. Going back to the MNF game vs Cincy, the D is averaging 19 ppg, which puts them at #8 in the NFL. Clearly, this isn't a 22nd ranked unit.
By the way, the Colts and Bears played 5 common opponents this year... with the Colts going 6-0 (beating the Patriots twice), and the Bears 3-2. (The Bears lost at Foxboro, and at home to the Dolphins. The Colts won with those settings.)
The Giants were 8 and 1/2 point dogs against the Ravens. No one expected them to run roughshod over this defense. I am a season ticket holder for Baltimore since 2000 and this years defense was only slightly not as good as the 2000 Ravens SB Championship team.
This years Bears team is good but they play in the NFC which is now the weaker conference. That's where you will see the difference.
1. Can they win on grass? Their last 3 games on the natural stuff were losses, all to division opponents during the stretch run to the playoffs. Miami has grass.
2. Can they play special teams? Ellis Hobbs made them look like college kids... and the Bears' Devin Hester has set two NFL records for returns so far... and he's a rookie.
3. Can the Colts stop the Bears if they refuse to punt past mid-field? The Pats went 4-for-4 on 4th down against the Colts in two games this year... needing 11 yds, they got 77 yds. For the year, the Colts converted ZERO 4th downs... and gave up 14-of-18 4th down conversions (78%).
4. Can they stop Grossman? Of course, which is why Lovie Smith will stick with the ground game... until it's time to unleash Grossman's true talent - the 40-yd laser. (Rex's main problem is that he can't throw that pass every down!) Look for two bombs on 3rd-and-short... especially since the Colts tend to play conservatively and get back to basics when the game gets grinding. They are very susceptible to trick plays. (In fact, in 2004, Jeff Fisher's Titans converted THREE onsides kicks (in one half!!) and three long TD passes to Drew Bennett on short yardage downs. They still lost, but it showed a real weakness.)
5. If the Bears play like the Texans, rather than the Patriots, they have a great shot. In their last game vs the Colts, Houston had a take-away on the Colts' first drive (and the Bears are turn-over experts... and every Colt ball-handler has either had a hand injury or a fumble in the playoffs... inlcuding Manning, Harrison, Wayne, Rhodes, Wilkins, Utecht and even lineman Charlie Johnson - on a kick reurn - last week). After that, they ran, and ran, and ran. The Colts only had 5 more possessions for the game, and scored on four of them (80%), with 3 for TD's... and it wasn't enough. The Patriots had SIX running plays in the last 37:30. They put the ball in Bradys hands, instead of playing keeep-away-from-Manning.
Lovie Smith will NOT do that to Rex Grossman. If they can convert like the Texans did (10-of-14, plus 1-for-1 on fourth down), then the Colts must score on every drive to overcome the likely field position advantage that Hester and the opportunistic Bears defense will give them.
It should be a great Super Bowl!!!