in fact, the way I see this race playing out right now - I currently give Hillary a 6 in 10 chance of winning in 2008.
she may well even be able to essentially run - unopposed. the conservative and right to lifers are busy taking down the top republican candidates, leaving us with a bunch of litmus test pure unknowns.
we barely won the elections in 2000 and 2004 - with a well known candidate, who had a well known family name, "pure" on the social issues, a religious man himself, plenty of money, running once as the incumbent. that formula - got us a 537 vote one state win and popular vote loss in 2000, and a one state win where a 65K vote swing could have given it to someone like Kerry in 2004.
so I'm supposed to believe that Hillary cannot possibly win in 2008?
I'd say 6 to 8 frankly. The Democrats have been very cohesive with their electorate the last few elections. They know this time what it takes. And we have NEVER been as divided.
I'm planning on NEVER turning on the news for 8 years if it happens.
BTW, I put this soley at the doorstep of the social conservatives.
I'm NOT the one who said that she can't win. :-)