Rudy might be able to get 48% of the vote in NY, McCain may be able to do the same in California, and perhaps even Romney can do the same in Mass. Not much consolation if the nationwide result is an Electoral College thumping. Well, here is the map from 2004. Note the competitive states in the North, and the mostly deep red States in the South and Mountain West. You can hardly disagree that Romney and Guiliani would do better in those competitive northern states (and NH) than would a conventional Bush-redux southern/western Republican. Please name the red states that you say we would lose by offering a candidate such as Romney or Guiliani? I don't see any.
Sure, it would be great to have 100% conservative President. However, such a candidate would not get us past 50% unless he had magnificent political talent and appeal. We don't have any such candidate, if we did he would come immediately to mind. Instead we have to go looking for a conservative savior, and project our hopes on candidates we had never heard of three months ago. Unearthing 100% conservatives of middling talent and appeal will not get us past 50% and we will LOSE.
I support Romney, because he is the most conservative of the three viable candiates, has a record as being as conservative as feasible in MA, is working hard to please conservatives now, and has plenty of political talent and potential appeal to a wider electorate.
You're absolutely right. The swing region is now the Great Lakes states. To folks in that region, Bush and Kerry are the same thing. That is, those folks aren't any more attracted to a southern evangelical than they are to a northeastern aristocrat. I know. I grew up there. If the Dems run Hillary (NY liberal) and we run Rudy (northern ethnic), we'll sweep that region. The Democrats won't be able to pick up enough electoral votes elsewhere to make up for the loss. Even if a few voters in the south and west stay home, those states are so red that they'll still go Republican.
"Please name the red states that you say we would lose by offering a candidate such as Romney or Guiliani?" There is a possibility Romney or Giuliani might lose New Mexico (5 electoral votes) since it has been teetering on the fence between Dem and Republican. Gore won New Mexico in 2000 and Bush won it in 2004 but by only 0.8% over Kerry in the popular vote. I see a good chance for Rudy or Mitt to win Michigan in 2008 (17 electoral votes) for a net gain of 12 electoral votes. Mitt has a good chance in Michigan, his native state, and where his father, George Romney, was a very popular Governor elected three times and is still remembered fondly.