Election more likely as Harper's poll numbers jump (Canada's Conservative PM)

Toronto Sun - Canada ^ | Tuesday, February, 13, 2007 | Lorrie Goldstein

[GMMAC]

Election more likely as Harper's poll numbers jump

Lorrie Goldstein
Toronto Sun
Tuesday, February, 13, 2007

Federal election speculation will be fuelled again by a new poll out yesterday showing more Canadians believe Prime Minister Stephen Harper is Canada's best leader. The poll by SES Research shows voters have much more confidence in Harper today compared to last Jan. 23, when the Conservatives won a minority government.

Pollster Nik Nanos, who has predicted the last two federal election results with uncanny accuracy, said Harper has "significantly" improved his leadership image with the public, scoring higher on "trust" by 14 points, "competence" (17 points) and "best vision for Canada," (14 points).

Today, 35% of Canadians polled consider Harper to be the most trustworthy federal leader compared to 20% for the Liberals' Stephane Dion.

In addition, 41% consider Harper to be the most competent leader (22% for Dion) and 39% believe he has the best vision for Canada (21% for Dion).

"The reality for the prime minister is that while voters don't warm to him initially, he does grow on them over time," Nanos said.

Dion's number's are down from those recorded by former Liberal PM Paul Martin just before last year's federal election on competence (by six points) and vision for Canada (four points). However, Dion scores slightly higher on trustworthiness (two points).

Last week, a SES poll showed the Conservatives and Liberals in a dead heat at 33% of the vote apiece.

However, rising public confidence in a party's leader is often an early sign the party's popularity is about to rise as well.

Prepare for poll position.

Content of SES Research Report as found in PDF format:
http://www.sesresearch.com/library/polls/POLNAT-W07-T217.pdf

BOTTOM LINE:

[GMMAC]

The popular surge may well already be underway with one poll released last Friday indicating a seven point (7!) jump in the Conservatives' favor.

[GMMAC]

PING!

[decal]

"Dion's number's are down from those recorded by former Liberal PM Paul Martin just before last year's federal election on competence (by six points) and vision for Canada (four points)."

Geez, this one must be a REAL loser, then - a dozen Tim Horton's glazed beats Martin on both points.

[goldstategop]

If they can get over 40%, they're in majority party territory. The key to the next election will be Quebec.

"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus

[Clive]

-

[fanfan]

BTTT!

[GMMAC]

As I recall you're bilingual FRiend, perhaps you'd like to check out the CPC's brand new French language TV ads, just up this morning on the Party's website and linked at the bottom of this release:
Stéphane Dion would take Quebeckers back to the Liberal past.

[Princip. Conservative]

Good news. Keeping a semblance of conservative leadership at their helm is Canada's only hope.

[GMMAC]

America's too ... as it sure as hell beats the left alternative!

BTW, just about to post a nice piece on Obama's 'blackness' vs. liberal hypocrisy - I'll ping you.

[ConservativeStLouisGuy]

I read about this in today's (free) Metro (here in Toronto)...even with the Liberal (Toronto Star-sourced) slant, the article was hard-pressed to admit that Harper is in better shape than the Liberals should a snap election be called. :-)

[GMMAC]

Hey, CSLG, long time no hear from!

If you liked this, you'll love John Turley-Ewart's Dion's sinking fortunes from today's National Post which combines all of this with a lot more to really lay out the how & why of same.

[ConservativeStLouisGuy]

Yes, it's been a little while....

The other article was good too -- it's always good to hear about the demise of the Libs. :-)