This is going to be a Hillary blowout when Rudy's numbers go down and hers get a slight bumb - the natural result of a long R vs. D campaign. They there's the Third Party candidate.
I'm beginning to believe Rudy Giuliani would lose in a landslide.
What 3rd party candidate, Nader? He detracts from Hillary
No doubt about it. I used to use my mother and grandfather as a gauge on elections. Gramps is 93, a union man, democrat. Mom is a liberal dem her entire life and they both voted for Bush and they know what Hillary is all about. They would absolutely NOT vote for her, but it doesn't matter that their eyes have been opened by events, myself and FR---they're automatic votes for Dems has been replaced by...well, I don't want to turn this into an immigration thread so I'll leave it at that.
I hope Giuliani is NOT the nominee, but I disagree that he'd lose in a landslide, I actually think he'd win, and here's why:
The Italian-American vote. Yes, it matters. As someone of Italian descent myself, I realize how much that connection matters. Many members of my family both conservative Republican and liberal Democrat, have said they'd vote for Rudy in a heartbeat, primarily because "we need an Italian in there." I'm not the only Freeper to suggest this, and it has been mentioned before. I'd go as far as to say that it's the Italian vote that won him the NYC mayoral race. That may also have a lot to do with his endorsement of Mario Cuomo over Pataki. Not sure if that's necessarily a good thing, but it's a fact.
Italian-Americans make up a significant portion of NY and NJ and enough of PA, Ohio, and Michigan that all those states could easily be in his column. NY would actually be the MOST difficult to win, because they love Hillary up there and already lean Democrat.
He'd do less well in the South, but would still win, just not by Bush-like margins in states like GA and the Carolinas. Florida will be a toss-up as it was in '00 and '04 regardless of the candidate.
Disclaimer: I am NOT a Giuliani cheerleader. Just making a political analysis of such a race.
He wouldn't be winning Florida in the poll if that was true.
John
" beginning to believe Rudy Giuliani would lose in a landslide"
You believe correctly! Let's hope we don't have to find out!