Posted on 02/14/2007 3:15:29 PM PST by madprof98
The Reagan coalition is dead. I came away from this weekend's National Review Institute's Conservative Summit in Washington, D.C., (where I spoke on a panel) with this thought reverberating in my brain.
Don't get me wrong: I'm not predicting who will be president in 2008, nor whether the slim Democratic majority in Congress will expand. That depends on the emergence of a new governing coalition, whose contours are yet to be firmly shaped.
But watching Ralph Reed debate the young libertarian whippersnapper Ryan Sager on whether religious conservatives take up too much space in the GOP, I noticed two things: A new day has dawned in GOP politics, and I appear to be one of the few who've noticed.
Former Gov. Jeb Bush was the rock star of the event, reiterating to loud applause basic conservative themes: limited government, which includes cutting taxes "whenever you can"; reform existing government institutions, such as ending social promotion in public schools. Finally (and this was for the social conservatives), Jeb urged Republicans to speak up about the need to strengthen families and for the idea of right and wrong.
Gov. Bush on education was very impressive. But I pick up the paper this morning and am equally impressed with New York's new Democratic governor, Elliot Spitzer, on education reform: Expand charter schools, demand accountability from principals and teachers' unions alike. Dems are learning to co-opt the most popular conservative reform ideas. That's not failure on the Reagan coalition's part; it's the sweet smell of success.
Notice too the defining characteristic of what GOP leaders like Jeb Bush offer to evangelical voters: talk. Talk about God, talk about families, talk about right and wrong. Democratic leaders have noticed this, too. Because if it's only a matter of talk, Dems can learn to do it, too, especially since (unlike conservatives) they can count on the courts to pass the base's social agendas. The Atlantic Monthly this month details the fascinating and successful efforts of two young evangelical political consultants to help Dems close the "God Gap," precisely with this new kind of talk. Dems don't have to win a majority of white evangelicals, just cut into the GOP dominating margin in this group to shift the GOP into permanent minority status.
Meanwhile, too many GOP elites seem intent on blaming for their defeat the very white evangelicals that the Dems are courting. The absurd idea that voters rebelled against the GOP's opposition to gay marriage is making the rounds (Craig Shirley's latest column is just one example). But aside from the war, the big obvious political reality on the ground is this: Dems' efforts to pass minimum wage increases and oppose the privatization of Social Security are very popular. This is the real elephant in the room that no conservative is allowed to notice. I do not say this with pleasure: I speak as a Reagan conservative who has both opposed increasing the minimum wage and supported personalizing Social Security. But if you can't notice political realities, you aren't in a very good position to figure out new strategies for victory of the principles you hold dear.
The Reagan coalition is dying, in the way great governing coalitions do: not through its failures, but through its successes. Think of the issues that held us together in the 1980s and 1990s: slash income taxes, spur economic growth, monetary reform, welfare reform, crime, communism and the decline of the family. Hardly any of these issues has the same political weight today because Reaganism's ideas transformed the U.S. economy, killed off communism, cut crime, stabilized inflation, and transformed welfare into workfare. Indeed, the irony is that the pro-family conservatives are the only part of the Reagan coalition whose problems are worse after 30 years of political effort. U.S. culture is coarser, families are weaker, schools now teach not only condoms, but gay marriage, porn is everywhere, abortion on demand is still the law, and almost 40 percent of our children are now born out of wedlock.
What is the next great governing coalition? Somewhere, the next Reagan is thinking hard.
Maggie Gallagher is a nationally syndicated columnist, a leading voice in the new marriage movement and co-author of The Case for Marriage: Why Married People Are Happier, Healthier, and Better Off Financially.
I posted this slightly dated article (didn't find it with a Search) because it seems to go along with the Rudy-mania here on FreeRepublic. Because the problems about which social conservatives are concerned seem worse today, the post-Reagan thinkers in the GOP want to give up on them - and leave that part of the Reagan coalition out in the cold. Quite a few FReepers, in fact, are gleeful about it. I wonder if they think the GOP got whipped last fall because we weren't flexible on abortion or gay marriage???
some interesting points in this article.
The Reagan coalition is not dead, there just is not a good candidate articulating it.
bump
Bookmarked.
But some truth in it, nonetheless. The Democrats recruited candidates who could talk the talk a little, and had some success with it the last election. It's way to early too see if they try to actually GOVERN with any of this rhetoric. My bet is their leaders won't allow it. So I don't think it's a long-term way for them to be successful.
It's also true that the courts will implement much more of the leftist agenda than ours. If we can't solve this, I just can't envision the US of 25 years from now being anything like it is today, or 25 years ago.
And if we offer amnesty, by any name, to 12-20 million people that have no desire for freedom and a life lived free of heavy handed government interference, I think we'll end up flushing the greatest country ever.
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For the sake of argument as the author hopes to generate, I will differ from that assessment.
Nafta did even more to transform the economy and the debate still rages as to if the benefits are worth it, communism is far from dead as anyone who witnesses the street protests that continue to this day across the nation, crime is still rampant and more so as a result of the continuing open borders approach, inflation is a whisper away from running rampant if foreign conflicts escalate, and we still as a nation are addicted to social programs that have tried to deal with state welfarism at a surface level only, imo.
and pray tell, what is a "new marriage"?
Thanks for posting this, btw.
I guess we all should give up and go home and run to Momma.
"Now remember, things look bad and it looks like you're not gonna make it, then you gotta get mean. I mean plumb, mad-dog mean. 'Cause if you lose your head and you give up then you neither live nor win. That's just the way it is." -Josey Wales
Yeah, the "Reagan democrats" are a dying breed probably never to return.
--from within the GOP and without
Many candidates want to use the Reagan name--but not embrace the full-spectrum of conservative ideas--it will not work
The Christian Coalition that runs the GOP these days is not.
Yeah, that's what we need all right - tolerance and inclusiveness. Why, let's start by kicking all those theocratic pro-lifers straight to hell!
"The Christian Coalition that runs the GOP these days is not."
Ludicrous. If the CC runs the GOP, how come none of their agenda has been put through--as Ms. Gallagher so well documents?
The GOP bosses treat the social conservatives the way the Dems do their core constituencies, like blacks--continually keeping them in a state of agitation, marshalling their votes, and doing nothing to improve their status.
Maybe I should have said "The GOP base". If the social conservatives really are being marginalized, it's their own fault. People who act like the fringe belong on the fringe, not like they're the "Real conservatives." As for none of their agenda being put through, how do you explain Bush's continued popularity with the religious right (and practically no one else)?
The Republicans in the House of Representatives passed a lot of good socially conservative legislation, but it always got bottled up in the Senate where Dems would threaten a filibuster. You can't say that the Pubbies didn't try. They did try, but the Dems blocked it.
Bingo! Reagan espoused the conservative ideals in a hopeful, optimistic and non-polarizing way which attracted women, independents and the Reagan democrats. That was the key to his success. I don't think those days are dead. We merely need a new ambassador to pick up where Reagan left off.
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