"So, you really think this could've played out this way if there was never any basis for a referral or an investigation?"
Yes, I do. Let me explain why (again). Bush probably appointed the SP because he figured:
1) If he doesn't do it, the conspiracies of cover up will grow out of control and dominate the news indefinitely.
2) If he does, an honest SP will quickly dismiss the whole thing.
Unfortunately, Bush assumed incorrectly that the SP would act in good faith. But, as I said earlier, the SP is really accountable to no one. So he had no compelling reason to act in good faith. And he didn't.
There is no way that OVP didn't know exactly what her status was - all they had to do was ask. Libby had all necessary clearances.
If her job wasn't classified, can you think of any reason why Libby would've AGREED in the CIPA proceedings that her status would not be a part of the trial? Why in the world wouldn't they demand that it be admitted?