[Congressman Billybob]

I'm replying to your post first, and then I'll read the original article and all the posts. The bottom line is that elections don't occur in a vacuum. You analyze the 2008 on how you think voters would respond to Giuliani.

If Hillary Clinton is the Democrat nominee, then at least half of your analysis should have been directed at how the voters would react to her. All that I have said is, if it's Hillary against Rudy, Rudy wins. And he wins big.

If the Democrats have the sense to nominate a different candidate, who is more electable than Hillary, then all bets are off.

Congressman Billybob

Latest article: "Rudy Beats Hillary -- End of Story"

[WFTR]

I won't be surprised if Hillary Clinton isn't the Democrat nominee, but I don't think she'd be weak against Rudy Giuliani. She's still going to get the reliable Democrat vote. Against Rudy Giuliani, she doesn't lose that much of the consistent Democrat vote. The "Reagan Democrats" who provided the winning margin for Ronald Reagan and George W. Bush are not going to leave their party to vote for a guy who thinks that killing a half-born child with scissors should be "an option," who wants to take their guns, and who likes to dress as a woman. They may stay home; they may vote third party; or they may hold their noses and vote for her. Among the erratic voters, she'll get the votes of those who want to see the first woman president. She'll get the votes of those who feel sorry for her because Bill Clinton cheats on her. She'll get the votes of those who see the Clinton years as "glory years" of the modern Democrat party. Ultimately, she'll get a good turnout from blacks who will remember that Rudy Giuliani's reign in New York City was a time when cops put a plunger handle up the rectum of an innocent black man and taunted "It's Giuliani time." She doesn't have much personal charisma, but many of us find Rudy Giuliani even more grating.

Against all of that, Rudy Giuliani cannot rally any traditional GOP support. He won't rally the gun owners. Hillary may be just as likely to take our guns, but letting Rudy win as a Republican means that we no longer have a political party that will say "No" to the gun-grabbers. He won't rally the pro-lifers. Hillary may do less to protect life, but again, a Republican winning with Rudy's position means that pro-lifers no longer have a party to represent their beliefs. He can't rally those who understand that national security starts with border security because he stands against border security.

He'll make things closer in New York because he'll win more votes in the city than Republicans typically do. He'll just lose too many votes outside the city to tip the state to his side. He'll make California a little closer, but ultimately, the "first woman president" draw will keep California on Hillary's side. He might win New Jersey, but he'll lose Ohio because he can't win Reagan Democrats. Arkansas comes into play again in the South. The beltway folks in northern Virginia mean that Virginia is always in play, but this time, the Republican candidate won't get a boost from the rural areas of the state. The more traditional Republicans learn about what Rudy Giuliani really believes, the less likely they are to vote for him. States that have been solidly Republican will come back into play for the Democrats. Rudy Giuliani is not the ideal candidate to beat Hillary Clinton.

On top of all of these things, Rudy Giuliani will suppress Republican turnout overall. He doesn't represent the people who traditionally vote Republican. His "coattails" will likely help the Democrats more than the Republicans, so his nomination will mean the Democrats gaining more seats in Congress.

Bill