No, we have not been on that course.
Yes, we have. I was referring to Bush admin's actions about N. Korean nuke test, not sorry-ass Clinton's escapade. Bush and China appeared to draw the line on the nuke test, but when it happened, China did not do much, and let it slide. Bush was initially serious but swiftly backtracked himself after losing mid-term election. That is why I said we have been through this course before. I do not understand why you got it wrong. Perhaps you are referring to the characterization of Condi=Maddie. Condi may have an improvement on some issues. However, lacking firm resolve is the same in both cases. Whatever the Condi's improvement is, it is woefully short to impress Kim Jong-il. No wonder Kim Jong-il and Kim Kye-Kwan are all smiles these days.
The fact that Kim himself agreed to inspections showed that China pressure strategy is working.
Yeah, N. Korea can let us inspect and eventually shut down a few well-known installations which are no longer really productive. What about N. Korea's not-yet-detected secret facilities and bombs? Are you going to take N. Korea's words on it? Certainly, we don't know exactly how much plutonium they have, nor the extent of HEU program, or other secret facilities. If N. Korea submits report on a fraction of what they have, how would U.S. determine if N. Korea has cheated U.S. again. As I said in the previous reply, is U.S. prepared to demand inspection to resolve all suspicions? N. Korea would balk and make hissy fit again. What would U.S. do? Just pretend that China would resolve it to U.S.'s satisfaction? If China muddles along not resolving it, what leverage does U.S. have? Is U.S. prepared to slap some punitive measure against China? I doubt it.
Outside of verifiable disarmament agreement, and step-by-step enforcement, what other options (short of military) could one expect or hope for?
It is a disingenuous mischaracterization to cast this as military option vs. current negotiation. Negotiation can proceed step-by-step for disarmament. To convince it, we need to put longer and harsher sanction against N. Korea. When N. Korea feels that it has truly run out of any option, then it might seriously negotiate. This can be certainly done while Iran crisis is still brewing.
This all boils down to what serious leverage U.S. has on China or S. Korea. So far I see little or none. U.S. had enough trouble to raise a measly fraction of Yuan's value over several months. I need to hear convincing case of how China would behave different now. If it is a classified matter now, fine. Then you don't have to tell me, but I can't subscribe to your argument until it gets unclassified and becomes public knowledge.
Remind me again what Bush's options were?
If nothing was done, no pressure on China was applied, then why did Kim not just go on doing what he was doing? Why do an about-face, just to start playing games with their [now] only benefactor China? China didn't mind Kim being a thorn in our side for awhile, but now that Kim is a bigger thorn in their side, his games are becoming their problems - they don't need him anymore, this "useful idiot" has outlived his usefulness to them and became a burden. They can't milk him anymore, like they used to. The point was to impress on China that Kim's games were more dangerous to her than they are to us. He might still try and play games but the result of the endgame is now understood. That's the success of our strategy.
Again, Kim is "contained" for the moment, any wrong move now and they risk alienating the only hope he has of surviving. He can have no assurances now that China doesn't just cut his lights out. NoKo has nothing to offer to buy anybody else's loyalty or devotion in sufficient numbers to go on for a long time. He has nothing to sell that China can't sell more and better.
As a result, we now have partners who are finally "involved" and have a self-interest and responsibilities to keep NoKo in check and step-by-step process of distributing flow of aid from them - substantially different from what we had before. I didn't expect at any time Kim signing terms of unconditional surrender on the deck of USS Reagan.
We now have time to concentrate on real pressing issue at hand - Iran. Once Iran is resolved, and if we are still unhappy with how NoKo is going, we can then start tightening the screws there. Priorities are important, and you have to give a little to get most of what you want, but it will take time. Soviet Union didn't fall apart in one day, no matter how abrupt it seemed at the time.
Condi has political perspective to understand that :
Condi Rice speech at Princeton University September 30, 2005
http://www.state.gov/secretary/rm/2005/54176.htm
(there is also a link to video)