We have been through the course you have just described. We were all led to believe that, if N. Korea set off their nuke, it is a last straw and all involved parties including China would enforce stiff sanctions. However, what happened? Chia shrugged it off after realizing that Japan is not about to go nuclear soon, nor scrap its pacifist constitution.
So what if N. Korea stiffs U.S. again? China would pretend to be annoyed. So would Russia. However, there would be no real change in their position.
Do you think that Dems would go along with ramping up pressure on N. Korea? Do you think that China would shut off all economic aid altogether?
More importantly, when it comes to disarmament and inspections, if N. Korea balks at thorough inspection on items not publicly disclosed yet, what would we do? Demand it steadfastly even at the risk of full-scale confrontation or resort to creative semantics and decided not to push it by saying that "it may not exist." There are many things that are under suspicion but not whose existence is not publicly confirmed, such as Yongbyon reactor. U.S. may forget about it, and take a stance that as long as they stay inside N. Korea, it won't push the matter. After all, it is important to smoothly pursue "strategic duologue with China."
Bush administration folks love to say again and again that if it fails next time, it would be the end, and tough retaliation would follow. Yet, they did not push it. It lost the political will. N. Korea knows it, and so does China & Russia.
What this administration is pursuing is to give the appearance of progress out of political expedience, and glory of State Dept..
Too many people worry about what would happen to their financial portfolio and shy away from the idea of confronting China in any meaningful way. In the era when just about everybody worries about financial portfolio, the fragility of financial market factors into the decision-making of national security matters. Financial market can be rattled badly and asset value could plunge if there is a major international crisis. People have become extremely risk-averse. That is the best weapon N. Korea and China have against U.S.
No, we have not been on that course. Clinton's agreement had no enforcement or inspections provisions, it was "outsourced" to UN, a "kick the can" joke of a "solution".
The point is that some agreement with NoKo had to be reached *eventually* - I am sure nobody is advocating military attack on NoKo at this point. The fact that Kim himself agreed to inspections showed that China pressure strategy is working. Kim is China's problem now - not that they want it, but they got it. The tit-without-tat game is over, and everybody knows it now. Inspections and disarmament will start before substantial aid starts to flow... any temper tantrum and spigot turns off, and it wouldn't be so easy to turn it back on next time without more giveaways by Kim. It won't be smooth, but it's a serious progress - short of military action. We made the first "gesture of good will", from now on it's "turtles all the way down" - Kim's turn. Flow of aid will never be comfortable enough for him to stop and go back. It's just a matter of execution now, when in Albright's case there was nothing to execute - it was a sham because it was designed to be a sham.
NoKo is "contained" for the moment, and maybe permanently, and at the very least Kim's position is severely weakened. We have truly serious issues with Iran (much shorter fuse, threat is more immediate, and more volatile), we shouldn't get distracted with NoKo strategies right now, only execution - the train is on the rails and it's only a matter of execution and time. If we have to bomb them someday (if Kim totally loses his cool), there will be no excuses and we'll have their neighbors on our side for a change. Kim presents far more danger to China now, that was not done in the case of bilateral Clinton agreement.
Outside of verifiable disarmament agreement, and step-by-step enforcement, what other options (short of military) could one expect or hope for? Kim will try to play games, but we know that and prepared for it now, and we are not in this alone anymore, neighbors have "skin in the game" now, and UN is not "involved" with their feckless "inspections".
Overall, much better than one could expect from our State Dept.