Oh, I'm not saying it's in the bag for either party. In fact, I'm not even certain that we'll win even if we get the best possible GOP candidate, or that Hallary or Obama can win even if we put up our worst candidate. I'm just saying that the "I talked to people" method means exactly squat.
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Yes. It's absurd. There's a story about that I can't quite recall, but it had to do with a group of voters asking how a Republican (GWB?) was elected, because "no one they knew voted for him".