Posted on 04/12/2007 7:53:09 AM PDT by rellimpank
It is usually silly to offer a single solution to complex problems. But it’s hard not to when looking at the serial savagery in Iran and the Arab world.
Oil — the huge profits it provides and the insidious influence it gives those selling it — explains most of the world’s worries over the Middle East.
No, that does not mean the United States is fighting in Iraq to get control of its petroleum. For all the charges of “No blood for oil,” the American occupation has neither been able to reverse a decline in oil production in Iraq nor alleviate skyrocketing oil prices worldwide. And, recently, the first new contracts of the now-transparent Iraqi oil ministry went to non-American companies.
(Excerpt) Read more at article.nationalreview.com ...
It seems there's some unwritten rule against accusing non-Westerners of fighting "for oil", however. We set up a democracy and let them sign contracts with others, we've paid a huge cost and gained nothing, yet we're still accused of "fighting for oil"; various militias intentionally blow up civilians in markets and religious places to try to gain control of the country by force, and they're not accused of "fighting for oil". Weird.
Anyway, I mostly agree with Hanson's prescriptions here. Certainly one thing we could do immediately would be to allow people to get the oil out from underneath the ground that already belongs to the United States. It strikes me as, simply, crazy that we don't do this. The United States has a lot of territory with oil underneath it, and yet for some reason, we don't let people get that oil. We'd rather pay high oil prices and then constantly agonize and spend tons of political, military, and monetary capital on making sure the Middle East remains "stable". Why?
I'm not as convinced about the effects of conservation however. Conservation means artificially reducing our demand for oil per person. That suppresses the world price of oil (maybe not very much, but still). That means that new oil exploration, bringing new facilities online etc. becomes marginally less lucrative. Which means, fewer new entries into the oil market. Saudi Arabia, of course, will continue to pump oil. But the Canada oil shale? Hmm.
If conservation is worth doing, it's worth doing for other reasons (for example, it saves individuals money long-term; if oil is finite, it extends the supply; etc). But I doubt it would have a positive effect on the Middle East. I want the global price of oil to be high, to be honest, because I want new entries into the market! The current situation is bad for us because the market is so dominated by unstable and unanswerable petrocracies from the Middle East. Well? The only way to fix that is to make the market not dominated by those places. Which means we have to encourage new entries into the market. Suppressing our demand for oil simply doesn't seem like a good way to do this.
Another benefit of high demand is that it could cause certain ME oil fields, which are projected to dry up, to dry up sooner. Don't we want that?
My answer is high (not unnaturally high, but naturally high) demand AND high supply. We have the ability to enact both, and we should, and until we do it's hard for me to believe our leaders are serious about addressing the problem of ME oil suppliers.
Countries with oil that generally don’t export terrorism include:
Canada
Mexico
Britain
Norway
Nigeria
Indonesia
Russia
Countries without oil that do export terrorism include:
Pakistan
Syria
Lebanon
Egypt
Yemen
Somalia
The coincidence of oil with terrorism is exactly that: A coincidence.
If Saudi Arabia were a poor, backwards outpost without oil, but with virulent Wahabbism, do you suppose it would export significantly less terrorism? If so, how do you explain Egypt which has no oil and does export significant terror?
Oil is not the problem.
Virulent Wahabbism, Islamofascism, the Muslim Brotherhood, Al Qaeda, etc. are the problem. Fight the problem, not the natural resources that are occassionally in the same neighborhood.
Inferiority is a societal problem, not associated with natural resources. The Middle East was inferior before, during and will be after the discovery and use of its oil.
VDH is brilliant when it comes to international relations, war, society, etc. But he should steer clear of economics, which is not his strong suit.
Oil for Allah.
I enjoy following the alternate fuels subject, and there is lots going on. When, I wonder will it actually impact our demand for foreign oil?
Victor Davis Hanson Ping !
Let me know if you want in or out.
Links: FR Index of his articles: http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/keyword?k=victordavishanson
His website: http://victorhanson.com/
NRO archive: http://www.nationalreview.com/hanson/hanson-archive.asp
Pajamasmedia: http://victordavishanson.pajamasmedia.com/
Thanks for the Ping !
I think the point he is trying to make is that most countries built their wealth through hard word and development of industry and a working class evolved into a middle class. The Middle Eastern countries got their wealth by nothing more than lucky geography. There is therefore no incentive to build the types of businesses that create the middle class becfause they already have the money.
That’s what I took from it anyway.
“If the United States could curb its voracious purchases of foreign oil by using conservation, additional petroleum production, nuclear power, alternate fuels, coal gasification and new technologies, the world price might return to below $40 a barrel.
That decline would dry up the oil profits of those in the Middle East who now so desperately use them to ensure that their own problems must also be the world’s.”
That about sums it up.
Virulent Wahabbism, Islamofascism, the Muslim Brotherhood, Al Qaeda, etc. are the problem. Fight the problem, not the natural resources that are occasionally in the same neighborhood.
Good post Brad.
The problem is the fundamentals of Islam as laid out in the Koran and Hadiths.
But Infidels will try to avoid a direct confrontation with Islam itself, so we have a plethora of other excuses available: Poverty, oil funding, their jealous of us, a few radicals have hijacked the religion, are you going to smear all Christians because of what Timothy McVeigh and Terry Nichol's did? I know some Muslims and they are wonderful people, they want the same things out of life as we do etc.
Islam is like cancer, you can ignore it at your peril. It is not going away ever.
Excuses for not confronting the religion itself, only lead to an acceleration of the problem. - tom
It is all about oil. If there were no oil there nobody would be there, and the war would be someplace else. Over what, who knows.
Absolutely right.
“Fight the problem, not the natural resources that are occasionally in the same neighborhood.”
Here is where we disagree. Oil is not an “occasional” resource. On this stage of human development its, essentially, the blood life. Oil gives all that radicals you mention money to exercise their fantasies. Without money from oil they would remain insignificant and local problem. With the money they can and do export their problems to the whole world.
As much as Europeans pride themselves to be so enlightened, they would give no rats end, for example, to Palestinians if they were not afraid of another oil embargo crisis (the same as they absolutely cynically don’t care about Darfur, Rwanda and all other suffering in the world - bloviating without actions I discount). Even in its current military condition, Britain would blockade Iran (with our help of course) if they did not afraid to shut down a large chunk of oil supply coming from Iran.
So, I don’t see why your point should contradict his. To me, its an evil synergy of Islamism and oily appeasement: one amplifies an effect from another.
Please reconcile your point with each of the following:
Richard Reid
U.K. Train Bombings
Spain Train Bombings
Bali Night Club
Egypt's Tourist Murders
Theo Van Gogh
Danish Cartoons & aftermath
Kashmir
The Taliban
Southern Thailand
Somalia on any given day
Chechnya
Kosovo
Philippines
India
Argentine Jewish Community Center
Israel
Hamas v. PA
Mehmet Ali Agca
Sirhan Sirhan
Seattle Jewish Federation
El Al Counter in Los Angeles
French Riots
Algeria before, during and after the French
Northern Nigeria (not the oil producing South)
Sunni v. Shia bloodshed (pick your country, esp. Pakistan)
Leon Klinghoffer
Entebbe
1972 Olympics
Beirut Marines Barracks
I have a superior theory: Beer.
It is the lack of Beer, rather than the existence of oil, that is the main problem fomenting Islamic terror. For want of a some barley and a few good brewmasters, the Islamists would certainly chill out with a cold one and some pistachios rather than blow us up.
My theory is superior because the lack of beer coexists with Islamists everywhere, regardless of the existence of oil. As the previous posts show, oil is clearly not the problem that caused all those situations, while the lack of beer is endemic to them. And as we all know, it’s hard to get motivated to blow yourself up after a six pack, and the abayas just gotta go.
Islam: Nothing Beer wouldn’t cure!
“Countries with oil that generally don’t export terrorism include:...
...Oil is not the problem.
Virulent Wahabbism, Islamofascism, the Muslim Brotherhood, Al Qaeda, etc. are the problem. Fight the problem, not the natural resources that are occassionally in the same neighborhood.”
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Great post!
“At the same time, vast oil profits do little to help — and probably much to harm — Middle Eastern countries. Unlike in places where economic achievement is the result of savvy business leaders, a hardworking labor force and a literate public, tribal hierarchies in the Middle East simply metamorphosed into billion-dollar nations by virtue of sitting atop crude oil.
One result is a big inferiority complex in the Middle East...
Another result is unstable societies...”
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So many tremendous statements in this article!
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