However, they are pumping billions into their military and are embarked on a naval shipbuilding program that is astonishing in terms of the scope of the numbers, and in terms of the modern nature of what they are building.
I believe that there is a fulcrum point coming, whether it sees them imploding under their own weight, or exploding outward is yet to be seen...but it is clear that the inner circles there are not building towartds their blue water fleet with the expectation that they will implode.
In addition, even if their aims externally are unrealistic in the short term, and unlikely given the current superiority US, the Japanese, the South Koreans, the Australians, etc...that has not stopped totalitarian regimes from attempting the impossible before and the world paying a heavy price to put them down.
I don’t believe China is living on an economically thin edge. It should be able to weather now (thanks to the hype that even leaders of industry believe) almost any economic eventuality so long as it is not too deep and extended. However, I don’t see that China can “replace” the United States, regardless, much less “own” the century. At some point the realization of China’s potential to become ‘a’ superpower has lept off the cliff of rationality, and the discourse has become that China will be “the” superpower, not simply rivaling the United States or even topping it by developing a slightly larger economy.
No, China in the conventional discourse will be “dominant.” How did we arrive at this conclusion in just a few short years? (Yes, the difference between the talk of China’s potential now and even at the turn of the 21st century a handful of years ago is dramatically different.) It’s because of hype, hyperbole, exaggeration, and the common, off-the-cuff statements that can be found in the article posted earlier this morning that claim China’s impending “dominance.”
Personally, I’ve begun to contact authors and journalists making these claims. Whether that does any good or not remains to be seen.
“I believe that there is a fulcrum point coming, whether it sees them imploding under their own weight, or exploding outward is yet to be seen...but it is clear that the inner circles there are not building towartds their blue water fleet with the expectation that they will implode. “
I’m hoping for the implosion. Of the full-scale civil war kind. I know it’s nasty...but if they did, and both sides expended their entire nuclear/chemical arsenals on each other, I wouldn’t shed a tear.
“In addition, even if their aims externally are unrealistic in the short term, and unlikely given the current superiority US, the Japanese, the South Koreans, the Australians, etc...that has not stopped totalitarian regimes from attempting the impossible before and the world paying a heavy price to put them down.”
Unfortunately that all depends on how much patience they show doesn’t it? Whether they’re forced by external or internal forces into playing their hand too early, or whether they successfully hold off until they’ve gained the industrial strength (probably coupled with raw-materials/oil assistance from Russia), and the West has deteriorated too far, for them to be stopped on a conventional level.
My bet is that the Chinese navy is for defense and that as they have traditionally, they will go west through Russia, India etc.
The Russians are playing with fire by coddling China. The Dragon will attack the Bear when she is ready.