What bin-Laden knew, after 9-11, is that we would come to Afghanistan, where the mujahideen would surely expel the Great Satan as they had the Russians. Mogadishu was the model as to what was expected of the Americans; the Taliban was not supposed to fall, and none of them expected the Iraq invasion. If it is true that bin-Laden WANTED three countries to be converted over to the enemy's side, then at least the rest of Araby sees the folly of such a desire by now.
They didn't expel the Russians, the Russians gave up because they couldn't win. You don't have to expel your enemy, you just have to not get expelled yourself. It's like our own history, do you think the die-hard American's would give up if Washington were destroyed? That's not even looking at the problem the right way. Afghanistan was perfect as a base for an ideological movement because there's nothing there worth defending.
Taliban was not supposed to fall, and none of them expected the Iraq invasion.
Perhaps not fall as it did, but they certainly counted on the western world interfering in other Muslim countries. That was their whole objective.
If it is true that bin-Laden WANTED three countries to be converted over to the enemy's side, then at least the rest of Araby sees the folly of such a desire by now.
It doesn't matter what the Arab world thinks of Bin Laden's success. He knows he could not defeat the United States militarily or economically. What he can do is get America to act in the interest of ideological Islam. The successful spread of democracy to Islam will be followed by a United States of Islamia and the genocide of the Jews. Bin Laden wants both and either we will give it to him, or waist our strength trying. Either way it's win win for radical Islam.