[Jacquerie]

We can import sugar cane ethanol from Brazil for less than the cost of US ethanol production. There is a tariff on Brazilian ethanol to protect US agricultural interests. It is that simple.

[Cuchulain]

I believe the tariff is somewhere between $.50 and $.60 per gallon.

[SAJ]

There's also a tariff on imported sugar, never mind ethanol, and this tariff is huge. Right now, today, it amounts to about 11.6 cents/pound, which is more than a pound of sugar costs. Check the #11 and the #14 sugar contracts on NYBOT, you'll see exactly how enormous this tariff is.

Until you can get the sugar lobby to roll over meekly (rotsa ruck; the timeline for that is never), importing sugar to produce ethanol is a pure fantasy.

[sphinx]

We can import sugar cane ethanol from Brazil for less than the cost of US ethanol production.

I expect that will happen within a few years. There is also work underway on varieties of sugarcane that can grow further north. The market will continue to evolve. Adjustment of tariffs and subsidies tends to lag because of the political friction involved but they will change eventually. I will hazard a guess and say that will happen within five years.