The liberal Atlantic magazine in the April 2007 issue has an article entitled "The Story of a Snitch" about this problem and how it played out recently in East Baltimore.
The figures are based on incarceration rates and, as you point out, can only be a loose indicator of the actual crime rate.
As a criminal commits more crimes he becomes more skilled at evading capture. I once saw a statistic that in some places a career burglar may commit an average of 100 burglaries before he actually does time.
However, regarding race, white criminals may have higher IQ than blacks and that could make them more elusive.