Hello everyone. I’m French and I could inform you of all what happen in France and why Sarkozy won with such a high score. But first I need to apologize for my poor english :/
I personally don’t vote for him on the first round election (on 22 April) but for Philippe De Villiers, the catholic party candidate. It’s a vote who’s agreed with my convictions, whereas I know that he has no chances to win and maybe make loosing Sarkozy. Because of this election has 2 rounds, some people prefers to vote for the right or left favourite candidates and not for theses who like really (instead of what happen 20 april 2002 and that’s why Le Pen access the 2nd round). With this kind of strategical vote, Sarkozy and especially Royale obtain high scores on the first, with a record for Sarkozy with 31%. Le Pen only gives 10% that mean mostly of his voters go to Sarkozy.
For the second round, socialists try to obtain a majority of voters from the center candidate Bayrou (18% on 1st round) because the left and extreme-left together only obtain something like 35% of voters. On the opposite right, (with center) and far-right have 65%. A good advantage for Sarkozy, but center leader Bayrou days after the 1st round, said he going to don’t vote for Sarkozy but even not saying that he vote for Royale (but that’s what it mean of course). So with a strong basculement of center-voters for Royale, Sarkozy could loose, and addition of that Le Pen appel abstention to his voters for the second round. He’s strongly anti-socialist but ever angry that Sarkozy take a large part of his electorate. In fact, my candidate (with 2% of voters), is the only one in right who appel to vote for Sarkozy in order to make Socialistes loose.
Finally, even Far-right voters and a small, but sufficient, majority of centers voters go to Sarkozy on the second round. I vote for him too, even I don’t like him and find him too laxist if security and Islamic danger.
Why are they voting for him anyway? My personal analyse :
First, when Royale try to obtain votes from the centre, his far-left voters who really don’t like her but hate much more Sarkozy (they saw him like a G.W Bush, a fascist… ) don’t like the idea of an alliance with right, even if his the center who’s compose from right and left moderate voters. A large majority vote for Royale anyway, but she loose some of them. But more of that, right-center voters don’t like Bayrou saying his preference for Royale and trying to sell his score of 18%. That’s obviously arrogant. So, even if they don’t like Sarko, they prefer vote for him or use abstention.
On the other way, Sarkozy do the exact opposite of Royale ! He don’t try to change his speech more moderate in order to collect centers-voters, we could even say that it make it more righter that before, in criticize, for example (and he did it also before), the laxist moral of May 68. I personally like that because he’s absolutely right for criticize this bad progressist heritage that ruin authority in my country. I think it’s the same for far-right voters who want to don’t vote in second round, like me, before that (and also because Sarkozy strongly oppose to Turkey entrance in European Union). So something like 70% far-right voters go to him on second round, despite the appel of their leader.
But more of all of that, in my opinion he win largely because he’s the best on the last Wednesday debate. Royale has absolutely no coherent program (but a lot of Sarkozy bashing of course), economically she’s a “catastrophe”, argue with a lot of mistakes and feminist stupidity propositions (she wants more cops but only in order to protect from rape females cops when they go to home the night… why just don’t let them using guns ?) and appears coleric and hysterical on screen, whereas Sarkozy’s very calm, polite (with this aggressive woman !) and with a coherent program, especially on economy. So, after that, the last sceptical right voters prefers vote Sarkozy than stay at home and let maybe win Royale.
Conclusion: Almost all the Right and even a small part of the Left vote for Sarkozy Sunday.
My opinion about Sarkozy : For me, and even his hard speech, he’s still more laxist with criminality, but maybe it could change now he’s president. We need to understand that ever he’s interior minister, he’s inside Chirac government and Sarkozy and Chirac hated together. It’s a secret for everyone but Sarkozy was high on opinion polls so Chirac has no choices to deal with him (but not with 1st minister of course). It’s true that Sarkozy is pro-american but even if it’s what he think, and even president, it’s still an unpopular position in France. So I don’t think it change a lot from now on. Better that Chirac yes, but that’s it. Anyway he was the same Iranian position as Bush. Economically, he has some very goods reforms and propositions (with sometime ecological stupidities but it’s still a popular position) and I very hope it could applies them very quickly. We all know in France that means a lot of strikes but I think we are ready now. Well, right people only.
Sorry for writing so much and to my English faults.
I hope that Right (Republicans) win on 2008 in our country. My favourite Republican candidate is surely Ron Paul, because he’s pro-life, a truly conservative and libertarian. I wish on day we have some guys like that in France.
Best regards from a French friend of America.
Some corrections :
“only obtain something like 39% of voters.”
“I don’t like him and find him too laxist WITH security and Islamic danger.”
“It’s NOT a secret for everyone”
Thank you for your analysis Tintin. Even though your english is not perfect, I understood you 100%!
Thanks Tintin, your English is terrific. More posts on FR and it will be even better. :+}
I am happy you took the time to explain to us how you came to your decision.
We know that Philippe de Villers counseled his followers to vote for Sarko. What are his post-election plans?
I am sure he has a lot to contribute in the future.
Thank you for your analysis - your English is just fine! :)