Posted on 05/08/2007 1:20:00 AM PDT by Cincinna
Six months ago Johnny Hallyday, the “French Elvis,” announced that he was taking up Swiss citizenship to escape France’s high tax rates, which absorbed about two-thirds of his income. Because Hallyday was known to be a supporter of then-candidate Nicolas Sarkozy, a political row immediately burst out. Showing some political courage, Sarkozy did not disavow Hallyday; instead he declared that the singer was quite justified. If he won the election, said Sarkozy, he would cut tax rates to entice France’s high earners back home.
That promise was important to many more people than Johnny Hallyday. Something like half a million young French people are estimated to be living in southern England. The Kent Corridor from London to Dover is known ironically as “France’s Silicon Valley.” And for every Parisian exile ten actual Parisians still seethe under high taxes and think about emigration. That sums up why Sarkozy won Sunday’s election.
Indeed, he did more than simply win an election. By any normal standard Sarkozy has established a clear mandate for sweeping conservative reform in France. He won the presidency by six points in an election that attracted a massive 85 percent turnout. He owed nothing of his victory to other parties or candidates — both the centrist François Bayrou and the ultra-rightist Jean-Marie Le Pen refused to support him. He made no secret of the character and extent of his reform program — indeed, as the Hallyday incident demonstrates, he rammed them home with enthusiasm. And it seems likely that he will be granted a friendly National Assembly with a large conservative majority in the forthcoming parliamentary elections.
So, if representative democracy works as it is supposed to do, Sarkozy will push through the market reforms that France has needed for at least two decades. He will deregulate its labor market, slim down the public-sector payroll, abandon the symbolic 35-hour work week, reduce public spending from its current 52 percent of GDP, and reform the French welfare state. Friends and admirers of France will hope that he succeeds. Americans will be especially supportive since he has said that with his election the U.S. has a “friend” — presumably he will end the anti-Americanism that has shaped French foreign policy under Jacques Chirac, his old patron and recent bitter rival. But will Sarkozy be able to push through such an ambitious and contentious program against opposition in the streets as well as in the corridors of power?
To say the least, it will be a high-risk project. In his first comments on the election, Sarkozy acknowledged that a passionate 47 percent of Frenchmen had opposed him. He denied that his victory was that of “one France over another” — even though the success of his program will require precisely that. He talked of the value of “social protection” and warned the European Union not to intrude on France’s social programs. (Sarkozy supports the European Constitution that the French rejected last year because they believed it would dismantle such programs.) Even if these remarks are merely the usual pseudo-generosity that winning politicians show to the other side to soothe their hurt feelings, they nonetheless suggest the scale of Sarkozy’s task.
That task is made harder and more complicated by non-economic problems — notably immigration and national identity. Young people in the banlieues around major cities, either immigrants or the descendants of immigrants, are disproportionately unemployed because of France’s inflexible labor market. Economically and socially excluded, they fall prey to extremist ideologies, generally Muslim ones, and reject their identity as Frenchmen. That makes them less employable. To make matters worse, they are likely to fight against the very measures of labor-market flexibility that could help them.
Sarkozy’s greatest problem, however, is that with all its problems France is stable. Those Frenchmen in work, especially those in the public sector, have a guaranteed comfortable existence even under high tax rates. France has not yet suffered a “winter of discontent” — a collapse of the economy under strikes and labor unrest similar to the one that persuaded the British that there was no alternative to Thatcher’s economic and labor reforms. Taxes are high, jobs are scarce, and cars are burning in the banlieues, but life is far from unendurable. Most Frenchmen still see no urgent reason to change. Some will fight to protect their subsidies — the middle class in politics and cultural debate, the labor unions in the streets. Others who now favor Sarkozy’s program may abandon his cause when it becomes too much trouble.
None of this means that the Sarkozy’s reforms are doomed — merely (though it’s a big “merely”) that their success depends to a very great extent on Sarkozy personally. Sunday he beat all sides — including most leaders of his own party — to win the presidency. He is clearly a resourceful and tough politician as well as a clear economic thinker. He will need all his talents — and more — to win this Battle of France.
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Good article.
His questions seems to be: Has France had enough pain to change?
If not, there’s much more on the way..
The earlier you cure a sick patient, the better chances of survival he has.. Waiting until he’s almost dead is a bad idea, IMHO.
Good freakin' luck. The riots will begin as soon as his reform plan is announced.
Very true. In his analogy, the patient has to know he’s sick and want the cure. It takes more for some to realize than others.
I’m with you on hoping France is ready.
An 85% voter turnout is, IMHO, a sign that France is ready for change.
But 47% voted for status quo...
I’m really hopeful. I can’t imagine the riots alone wouldn’t make any civilized society ready. But as the article points out, the have quite a large dependent sheeple population.
They already have.
I guess it will be a matter of numbers, whether or not there are enough French citizens who are tired of carrying around the useless who think they are entitled to 2/3's of their paycheck. Of course, if they have media against them, it won't be an easy fight. All they have to do is look at what's going on in America with corrupt media supporting the marxist party here to see what kind of uphill battle they face. They have nothing to loose at this point however. If they loose, France and the rest of Europe behind it will continue to head towards total economic and societal collapse as it always does under the marxist stupidity the keep on inflicting upon themselves. This is sort of like a last chance effort to row back upstream just before the boat goes over the falls- too little too late.
France's system of assuring everyone that they will have state-provided funds no matter what reminds of the story about the frog being slowly boiled. At first he's comfortable, but as the water gets hotter he finds it becomes too difficult for him to get out of the cauldron.
It would be interesting to see a demographic breakdown of that 47%. I would bet that most of those voters are in the very young and/or very socialist camp. Plus a high percentage of the bureaucrats, educrats, and other "elites" of French society. In short most of the people entrenched in the privileged French sector who think they will lose a lot if forced to work for a living.
To the barricades. Every day will be children’s day again.
Most Frenchmen and women work hard and I agree with the article many who have worked hard, have been financially successful despite the Socialist Tax Structure, are fleeing to other Countries, including the United States.
I have several successful French Friends who have fled to the USA to avoid Social Taxation AND Radial, Violent Islamic Immigration that has occurred in their Country.
Question. According to the article (which is consistent with others I have read), government spending in France is around 52%.
What is it in the US? I know Federal spending is around 18 to 20% but what is it for all forms of government spending (state, local, etc.)?
Anti-truth, anti-freedom, anti-individual, anti-life collecives are likely to join forces.
All forms of taxation combined approaches 50% of income for the average family. Spending on all levels of government is not likely to be less.
"Just because you're a feminist, you don't vote for a women who does not have the ability. We're talking about the presidential election here ... It's too serious to link this to a phenomenon of femininity or feminism,".
Another quote that's a bit disturbing, but in one way probably good fun for this audience, is...
Statistics show women in France are far from equal. Just 12 percent of lawmakers are female and only one woman heads a firm in the CAC-40 index of blue chip companies, and she is American.
On the subject of French taxes, they're huge on the income tax front, but less so (I believe) from the capital gains tax angle. Particularly onerous are inheritance taxes and a special tax on the capital of the very wealthy (that i know very little about). Ask me again in a few months, I'm moving to Paris in 3 weeks! You might say I had a vested interest in the outcome of this election, and that sound you can hear is me, breathing a big sigh of relief.
I've often wondered about the perceived French distaste for wealth, I don't really understand it but it seems underpinned by a vaguely-formed notion that if you're wealthy, you must have somehow cheated or exploited others or taken advantage of the general masses to become that way - possibly a throwback from a previous age when status was purely inherited? What I'm getting at is that these socialist policies aren't entirely an outcome predicated by a set of clearly-defined political beliefs, but something more akin to psychology and collective national history that's harder to pin down and therefore also more difficult to argue against. I've tried.
A common belief in Catholic countries, probably stemming from - as you suggested - a history when the only way to get rich was to loot from someone else.
ping
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