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To: blam

Practically speaking, though typical influenza is a killer, taking between 30,000-50,000 Americans every flu season, it is mitigated by several factors. Avian flu (H5N1) is truly unique, having several lethal advantages.

1) The H5 factor. “H” is the method viruses enter cells. “N” is how they get out of those cells after using them to reproduce. There are several “H” and “N” factors, but only H1, H2, and H3 have ever created human epidemics. This means that there is no, zero, immunity in people to H5N1. In most flus, at least some people have some immunity.

Typically, a person with some immunity must get a substantial amount of contamination to get infected. However, it would only take a fraction of the amount of H5N1 to cause infection.

2) Where the virus reproduces. Other flu viruses reproduce almost exclusively in the upper respiratory tract and the sinuses. Avian flu (H5N1) reproduces in the lower respiratory tract, which is the one thing that has kept it from becoming easily Human to Human (H2H) transmissible. But it also reproduces in several internal organs, damaging and weakening them.

3) The immune system response. When we think of flu symptoms, most of our “sickness” is actually caused by our own immune system, responding to the disease. But as bad as it seems, only with a killer flu does it become life threatening. That is, our own immune system reacts so violently to the flu that it hurts us.

The worst of this happens in the lungs, and is called the “cytokine storm”. The fight between the virus and the immune system destroys lung tissue, causing ulceration, severe inflammation, and the lungs fill with blood and fluid, causing oxygen deprivation and suffocation. It was a theoretical effect which has only been observed in Avian flu patients, and has been proven.

4) Animal vectors. Most flus are very limited in the animals that can catch and spread the human variant. Avian flu (H5N1) has made some incredible jumps, with confirmed infection in many birds, cats, dogs, pigs, and even fish. It is unknown if it can afflict cattle, sheep and rabbits. This is very important, as even if the flu spreads just in animals, it could cause widespread famine in the world.

5) Mortality. When lethal diseases begin, it is usually at peak lethality, then there is a downward curve, the less lethal strains become dominant. However, Avian flu (H5N1) has mysteriously maintained is mortality rate of between 50-60%, which is very high for a disease.

On top of that, there has been no known case of a “mild” form of Avian flu. If you contract the disease, you will either die, or you will have severe lung damage for the rest of your life.

6) Unknown factors. Resistance or susceptibility to Avian flu might include a genetic factor. This was seen in the death of a large family in Asia. Every blood relative of the family died, but not two women who belonged to the family by marriage. Hardly a coincidence.

Put it all together and Avian flu is in a class all by itself. This is not to say that ordinary flu is not a threat, but compared to the Avian flu, it is hardly noticeable.


8 posted on 05/08/2007 8:49:47 PM PDT by Popocatapetl
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To: Popocatapetl

Good synopsis.


10 posted on 05/09/2007 4:58:47 AM PDT by Gritty (If H5N1 goes human-to-human, none of us know what the human mortality would be- Dr M Osterholm)
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To: Popocatapetl

Cytokine storm is not limited to the flu.


14 posted on 05/09/2007 7:12:57 PM PDT by Domestic Church (AMDG...)
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