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There is a chance Republicans could take this seat, the people are rather Conservative, but they are Democrats. Its actually a pretty unusual district. It voted for Romney over Kennedy in 1994, Weld over Kerry in 1996, and Republicans run ahead of the other non-Boston Congressional Districts in each Gubernatorial election. For example last year Deval Patrick who took 56% statewide, only got 51% back in the 5th.

That being said, you need a good, connected, articulate candidate to win this race, and a favorable environment to Republicans nationwide. I think Ogonowski is good and connected (mb a little lacking on speaking ability), but the Republicans arn't out of the woods yet, and for that reason I think though they might have had a shot in 2002 or 2004, I think its unlikely we can pull my district to the R-Column.