Despite its oil, the Middle East is less relevant than ever

The Australian ^ | May 10 2007 | Edward Luttwak

[knighthawk]

Defence scholar Edward Luttwak, in Prospect (May), on why this backward region is not strategically important

WE devote far too much attention to the Middle East, a mostly stagnant region where almost nothing is created in science or the arts. Excluding Israel, per capita patent production of countries in the Middle East is one-fifth that of sub-Saharan Africa. The people of the Middle East (only about 5 per cent of the world's population) are remarkably unproductive, with a high proportion not in the labour force at all.

[knighthawk]

Ping

[colorado tanker]

WE devote far too much attention to the Middle East, a mostly stagnant region

True. The only problem is they want to kill us, and are acquiring the missiles and nukes to do it.

[Neville72]

I hope to live to the day when oil is no longer a strategic commodity and we can blithely tell the Middle East to modernize OR STARVE......and not care which they pick.

[Alberta's Child]

This guy Luttwak is one of the most intriguing "big-picture" thinkers I've ever read. I don't know what his background is, but I've read articles he's written on a number of different subjects and found him to be quite astute.

In my opinion . . . From the standpoint of the U.S., Middle Eastern oil is far less important than its position as the "choke point" along what has become one of our most critical trade routes -- the Suez Canal.

[FormerACLUmember]

IMHO, I predict that productive patent developing folks will soon perfect algae into oil bio-technology and bankrupt the Middle East (and Hugo Chavez).

[PJBankard]

We could do that now. We just need the Dems to stop preventing us from drilling in Alaska.

[Yo-Yo]

True. The only problem is they want to kill us, and are acquiring the missiles and nukes to do it.

And have the Petrodollars to do it with.

[colorado tanker]

Luttwak is definitely a presence. With oil from the FSU coming online, I agree the Mideast countries will have a harder time dictating terms, well with the exception of the Saudis.

I think Suez is increasingly less relevant. Most oil tankers bypass it and the advent of easy airfreight and super-container ships make it less important.

If the region could be turned away from islamofascism and the terror those movements and regimes support, and get with the global economy and culture, you wouldn't see many headlines from them, for sure.

[truth_seeker]

The breakthroughs for new energy will likely come from users, eg. US, Europe, China and/or India.

Very unlikely that in spite of decades of western technology education, any arab/muslim will lead efforts to replace oil.

They just sit on their worthless rearends, waiting for it to run dry.

They can’t engineer or construct a refinery, pipeline, etc.

I imagine it is Israel which prevents arab/muslims from rich families from learning the how to do.

[RC2]

Even with those that are in business, you would be amazed at how they conduct that business. They try to screw their own government all the time. Name something they use and see if you can find a manufacturer over there.

[Reaganesque]

At some point in time, oil will be replaced by something else as our main energy source. There are several new technologies that have great promise and rising gas prices, spurred by Middle East instability, are providing more and more compelling economic incentives for market forces to find alternatives to oil.

When this happens, and I believe this will be sooner rather than later, the economies of the Middle East (with the exception of Israel) will collapse. On the one hand, we will no longer be dependent upon foreign sources of energy. This will be a good thing. On the other hand, if we thought the instability in the Middle East is bad now, wait until the time when even today's mega-wealthy sheiks are begging for food. Not the rosiest of prospects.

[Constitutions Grandchild]

Unfortunately, they now have a third option — they can nuke us. That would, however, to a rational human being be a somewhat flawed approach due to the long life of nuclear waste and the starvation that would follow. Something tells me that these facts haven’t occurred to these Persian Rocket Scientists, and we don’t have the heart or the courage to stop them from the approaching train wreck. All we need is Dorothy and Toto and we’re set, ‘cause it sure isn’t Kansas out there anymore.

[Alberta's Child]

I believe the Suez is far more critical than you might think. The U.S. thought it was important enough that it basically forced Israel to give up the Sinai Peninsula to Egypt over it.

The canal is part of the most direct trade route between the world's fastest-growing manufacturing region (Southeast Asia) and the most lucrative consumer markets (western Europe and the eastern U.S.). And as a flat canal with no lock system, it doesn't have the same operational constraints that the Panama Canal has.

[R.W.Ratikal]

Without oil the Middle East would be of interest only to archeologist's and to the National Geographic Channel.

[ex-snook]

We do not want to become oil independent. We reject all attempts to be so. Oil justifies our military presence in the ME.

[kabar]

In my opinion . . . From the standpoint of the U.S., Middle Eastern oil is far less important than its position as the "choke point" along what has become one of our most critical trade routes -- the Suez Canal.

Oil is a global commodity and thus fungible. It matters not where we get our oil from. As long as the Middle East remains the greatest exporter of oil and the region with most of the world's proven oil reserves, oil is the most important strategic reason why the US is involved in the region. The importance of oil to the global ecomomy is more critical to us than the Suez canal.

[Joe Boucher]

Other then oil and death, what the hell do they offer?

Mooselimbs, sure would be a better world without em.

[cpdiii]

His article is”mostly correct” with one glaring omission. The omission is that oil revenues in the hands of Islamic Radicals can be and is being used for nuclear programs. These programs will not defeat the West but they could inflict terrible losses on us. Crude nuclear devices in the 20 kiloton range could take out a lot of people if placed in the correct spot at the right time. How many people are in Lower Manhattan Monday morning at 11 AM? The loss of life would be very bad. Economic loss would be beyond measure.