Posted on 05/15/2007 5:00:01 AM PDT by Diana in Wisconsin
Vienna, Austria - Inspectors for the International Atomic Energy Agency have concluded that Iran appears to have solved most of its technological problems and is beginning to enrich uranium on a far larger scale than before.
The findings might change the calculus of diplomacy in Europe and the United States, which aimed to force a suspension of Iran's enrichment in large part to prevent it from learning how to produce weapons-grade material.
In a short-notice inspection of Iran's main nuclear plant at Natanz on Sunday, conducted in advance of a report to the United Nations Security Council early next week, inspectors found that Iranian engineers were using roughly 1,300 centrifuges and were producing fuel suitable for nuclear reactors.
Until recently, the Iranians were having difficulty keeping the delicate centrifuges spinning at the tremendous speeds necessary to make nuclear fuel. Often, the engineers were running them empty, or not at all.
Those roadblocks appear to have been surmounted.
"We believe they pretty much have the knowledge about how to enrich," said Mohamed ElBaradei, director-general of the agency. "From now on, it is simply a question of perfecting that knowledge. People will not like to hear it, but that's a fact."
Four years ago, ElBaradei clashed with the Bush administration when he said there was no evidence that Iraq had resumed its nuclear program.
Challenges ahead
It is unclear whether Iran can sustain its recent progress.
Major setbacks are common in uranium enrichment, and experts said it was entirely possible that miscalculation, equipment failure or sabotage could prevent Iran from reaching its goal of producing fuel on what President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has called "an industrial scale."
The material produced so far would have to undergo further enrichment before it could be transformed into bomb-grade material, and to accomplish that, Iran probably first would have to evict the agency's inspectors, as North Korea did four years ago.
Even then, it is unclear whether the Iranians would have the technology to produce a weapon small enough to fit atop their missiles, a significant engineering challenge.
Iran has said that its nuclear program is intended to produce energy, not weapons.
Although the U.N. Security Council has passed a resolution demanding that Iran suspend all its nuclear activities, and twice has imposed sanctions for Iran's refusal to do so, some European nations, particularly Russia, have questioned whether the demand for suspension still makes sense.
'Point of no return'
The logic of demanding suspension was that it would delay the day when the Iranians gained the knowledge to produce their own nuclear fuel - what the Israelis used to refer to as "the point of no return."
Those favoring unconditional engagement with Iran have argued that the strategy is creating an impasse that the Iranians are exploiting, allowing them to make technological leaps as the Security Council tightens sanctions.
In contrast, the Bush administration has argued that it will never negotiate while the Iranians speed closer to nuclear-weapons capacity, saying there has to be a standstill as long as talks proceed.
Undersecretary of State Nicholas Burns, who is carrying out the Iran strategy for the U.S., said that although he had not heard about the agency's newest findings, they would not affect U.S. policy.
"We're proceeding under the assumption that there is still time for diplomacy to work," he said.
Burns added that if the Iranians did not agree to suspend production by the time the leaders of the largest industrial nations meet next month, "we will move ahead toward a third set of sanctions."
ElBaradei always has been skeptical of that strategy, telling European foreign ministers that he doubted the Iranians would fully suspend their nuclear activities, and that a face-saving way must be found to resolve the impasse.
Unanswered questions
The report to the Security Council next week is expected to say that since February 2006, when the Iranians stopped complying with an agreement on broad inspections around the country, the agency's understanding of "the scope and content" of Iran's nuclear activities has deteriorated.
Inspectors are concerned that the Iranians have declined to answer a series of questions, posed more than a year ago, about information they probably received from Abdul Qadeer Khan, the Pakistani nuclear engineer.
Of particular interest is a document that shows how to make uranium into spheres, a shape suitable for use in a weapon.
The inspection conducted Sunday took place on two hours' notice, a time so short that it appears unlikely that the Iranians could have turned on their centrifuges to impress the inspectors.
According to diplomats familiar with the inspectors' report, in addition to 1,300 working centrifuges, 300 were being tested and appeared ready to be fed raw nuclear fuel as soon as this week. Three hundred centrifuges were reported to be under construction.
The agency reported more than a week ago that about 1,300 centrifuges were in place, but nuclear experts said that what struck them now was that all the centrifuges appeared to be enriching uranium and running smoothly.
Who is not surprised at this. That was their announced intention, they have steadfastly refused to even negotiate any of the terms by which they may have gotten permission for a lesser program, and they have been making some hostile noises all the time.
Do I think there will be any pre-emptive strike to take their capability out? No.
Some foreign city, or several cities, are going to have to get nuked first.
Would you care to place a friendly wager on that? Are you certain that there's not a single country on earth that would hit Iran before she got a nuke?
New York... Washington... LA... who will be first?
I don’t think L.A. will ever get hit by a terrorist attack. Too many supporters located in that area.
While they'll never state it... it sure does seem that has been agreed upon. Expendable resources...
I know a solution!
Lets pass yet another UN resolution!
And if Iran doesn’t comply, lets threaten to pass another resolution.
Gee, I bet Hans Blix still wouldn’t find any evidence of a nuclear program in Iran.
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