Oil will not be Federalized in Iraq. Essentially, the Kurds want their own nation.
So, where does that leave us? I see three potential outcomes:
1. We seize Iraq, make it a US territory, and take their oil.
2. We allow it to remain a civil battlefield, hope that it continue to attract Al Qaeda fighters, and we fight with them for as long as they show up.
3. We walk away and allow Iran and Syria to divide it up. Once they get their oil thing together -- we buy the oil.
Okay critical thinkers -- what other outcomes do you see?
Sounds like a problem that needs compromise. The Kurds get some of the wells, and the Iraqi government gets others. Same in the south with the Shias.
At some point, Iraq's government has to make the tough choices or they have to suffer the consequences. That's not "cut-and-run" argument, but instead an argument that you don't keep throwing more American lives away on a nation that won't make the tough choices thmeselves.
Option 4, as we did in the Philippines in the Insurrection, we crush the opposition ultimately, turning it into a relatively peaceful area, and break the back of international jihadism right there in Iraq. We have to fight them somewhere, and someplace will be the battlefield.
It sounds like the Kurds have thrown down the gauntlet that will make them the new country of Kurdistan but the question will be, do we let them be annexed?
The Kurds are right, for a number of reasons. The first is that there is no reason to entrust the country's oil to a (so far) unstable kleptocracy in the south of Iraq. Let the government exact a modest tax per barrel as international investors make the oil boom begin.
The second reason is that the Kurds not only have a good economy that is just what we're trying to create elsewhere in the country. Allowing a sane form of government to continue there will spread the idea that free markets lead to peace elsewhere in Iraq.
The final, and key reason is that the Kurds could clobber any Shiite army that tried to invade. If they don't want to join Iraq, it's not going to happen. And good for them.
Okay critical thinkers -- what other outcomes do you see?
Who says that Iran and Syria divide it up peacefully? I see the Saudis and other Sunnis trying to counter the Shia Iranians militarily. Perhaps Iraq will be their final battlefield. In that case, it's a damn good thing to get our people out of the way.
We have well over a billion Islamunists to conquer, the more of them that kill each other, the less mop-up the West has to do.
You F with our country, not only will we track you, personally, down and kill your worthless butt, and as many of your equally worthless kin as that mission takes, but your entire country and/or those that supported you will simply cease to exist.
Afghanistan should have been fragmented along ethnic lines into mutually warring pissant regions, and the same fate should have befallen Iraq.
Turkey, who wouldn't allow us to stage on their turf would be rewarded with a hostile Kurdistan on their border...
Your premise is faulty, which leaves you limited conclusions.
The Kurds will support oil sharing, they just don’t want it to be tied to a national oil company. As conservatives, we should all oppose a national oil company. But the central government could claim royalties from all oil, and then distribute those royalties throughout the nation in a fair way not tied to where the oil fields are.
Like Alaska gives royalties to all alaskans, not based on whether they live in the provinces where the oil is being extracted.
Before any Iraq oil is nationalized, they need to find that 100,000 to 300,000 barrels per day. Even Mexico is not that corrupt.
None of your proposals are even remotely acceptable. An autonomous Kurdisatan may be the best outcome available.
Reading too many NY Times quagmire stories?
The only outcome I see is that no matter what, the US taxpayers (and their descendants for generations to come) are going to get stuck paying off the holders of all those T-Bills to the tune of almost a Trillion dollars.
Maybe the genius brain trust in DC should cut a deal with which ever faction will agree to pay us back and sell us oil below market.....................
Create a number of viable separate oil businesses. Issue every adult Iraqi citizen ownership shares in all of these separate operations. Allow these shares to be bought & sold on an Iraqi stock exchange. Those who want to stay in the oil business keep their shares and buy more. Those who prefer cash now sell their shares. Once oil is in the marketplace, the need to fight over control of the government will be reduced.
We make it clear to the Kurds if they torpedo a reasonable oil deal, that we need to end the Sunni insurgency, they will forfeit our protection and we will not defend them against Sunni, Turkish or Iranian incursions.