American companies will only sell in China until the Chinese have completed stealing their trade secrets and have set up Chinese companies making the same thing for the Chinese market. It will be very profitable for the current crop of CEOs, who will have retired on their fat bonuses and stock options before the troubles are seen
McDonald's doesn't have any trade secrets, any more than Burger King has trade secrets. Any McDonald's corporate manager can tell you how McDonald's operates. But there is ony one McDonald's - in the sense of an industry-dominating company - and everyone else is an also-ran. People don't buy Procter and Gamble Products (Crest, Wisk, etc) because of any secret formulas. They buy 'em because of a combination of slick marketing that convinces Chinese consumers that the product is right for them and a reputation for quality and reliability. The fact is that the primary foreign products on Chinese store shelves are American brand names and not European or Japanese brand names because American brand names have a reputation in China for quality. This is why GM sold 877,000 cars in China in 2006. That was 70% of GM's East Asian sales. In other words, GM sold more cars in China than the rest of East Asia put together.
There is also a cachet associated with buying foreign products in general and American products in particular - the main problem for the average Chinese isn't that he doesn't like US products - it's that he can't afford them, apart from soaps and shampoos and cell phones. And yet, despite the fact that American products are considered luxury goods in China, it imported $56b of American goods in 2006 - just $3b less than Japan.
As China grows wealthier, the amount of US exports to China is bound to increase. Why? For the same reason that US exports to Japan have increased. The Japanese have copied every major American innovation and continue to do so, but they have become a major US export market in the process. As Japanese wages increased from a tiny fraction of US wages to 2/3 American wages, Japanese buying power increased and the price differentials for Japanese consumers between Made in Japan and Made in USA products practically vanished.
Something similar is happening in China today, and it would be a shame to derail it. In fact, the Chinese market has surpassed Japan's for many US companies. GM's 877,000 sales figure for China dwarfs the 383,000 sales figure for the rest of East Asia. Back in the mid-90's, the Chinese market was a nonentity for US products.
Here's a pop quiz from 1997, which figure grew faster - US exports to China or Chinese exports to the US? The correct figure is US exports to China, which grew 18% per year compared to Chinese exports to the US which grew 16% a year. In fact, US exports to China in 2006 are skyrocketing (34% increase from 2005) at a time when Chinese exports to the US are leveling off (18% increase from 2005).