Posted on 05/22/2007 1:18:24 PM PDT by maquiladora
May 22, 2007 — Experts at the NOAA Climate Prediction Center are projecting a 75 percent chance that the Atlantic Hurricane Season will be above normal this year—showing the ongoing active hurricane era remains strong. With the start of the hurricane season upon us, NOAA recommends those in hurricane-prone regions to begin their preparation plans.
"For the 2007 Atlantic hurricane season, NOAA scientists predict 13 to 17 named storms, with seven to 10 becoming hurricanes, of which three to five could become major hurricanes of Category 3 strength or higher," said retired Navy Vice Adm. Conrad C. Lautenbacher, Ph.D., undersecretary of commerce for oceans and atmosphere and NOAA administrator. An average Atlantic hurricane season brings 11 named storms, with six becoming hurricanes, including two major hurricanes.
Climate patterns responsible for the expected above normal 2007 hurricane activity continue to be the ongoing multi-decadal signal (the set of ocean and atmospheric conditions that spawn increased Atlantic hurricane activity), warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean and the El Niño/La Niña cycle.
Last year, seasonal hurricane predictions proved to be too high when an unexpected El Niño rapidly developed and created a hostile environment for Atlantic storms to form and strengthen. When storms did develop, steering currents kept most of them over the open water and away from land.
There is some uncertainty this year as to whether or not La Niña will form, and if it does how strong it will be," said Gerry Bell, Ph.D., lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at the NOAA Climate Prediction Center. "The Climate Prediction Center is indicating that La Niña could form in the next one to three months. If La Niña develops, storm activity will likely be in the upper end of the predicted range, or perhaps even higher depending on how strong La Niña becomes. Even if La Niña does not develop, the conditions associated with the ongoing active hurricane era still favor an above-normal season."
Bell also noted that pre-season storms, such as Subtropical Storm Andrea in early May, are not an indicator of the hurricane season ahead. "With or without Andrea, NOAA's forecast is for an above normal season." "With expectations for an active season, it is critically important that people who live in East and Gulf coastal areas as well as the Caribbean be prepared," said Bill Proenza, NOAA National Hurricane Center director. "Now is the time to update your hurricane plan, not when the storm is bearing down on you."
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through November 30, with peak activity occurring August through October. The NOAA Climate Prediction Center will issue an updated seasonal forecast in August just prior to the historical peak of the season.
The Atlantic Hurricane Seasonal Outlook is an official forecast product of the NOAA Climate Prediction Center. Instituted in 1998, this outlook is produced in collaboration with NOAA scientists at the NOAA Climate Prediction Center, NOAA National Hurricane Center, NOAA Hurricane Research Division and the NOAA Hydrometeorological Prediction Center. The NOAA National Hurricane Center has hurricane forecasting responsibilities for the Atlantic as well as the East Pacific basins. The NOAA Climate Prediction Center, NOAA National Hurricane Center and the NOAA Hydrometeorological Prediction Center are three of the NOAA National Weather Service's nine NOAA National Centers for Environmental Prediction, which provides the United States with first alerts of weather, climate, ocean and space weather events.
NOAA, an agency of the U.S. Commerce Department, is celebrating 200 years of science and service to the nation. From the establishment of the Survey of the Coast in 1807 by Thomas Jefferson to the formation of the Weather Bureau and the Commission of Fish and Fisheries in the 1870s, much of America's scientific heritage is rooted in NOAA. NOAA is dedicated to enhancing economic security and national safety through the prediction and research of weather and climate-related events and information service delivery for transportation, and by providing environmental stewardship of the nation's coastal and marine resources. Through the emerging Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS), NOAA is working with its federal partners, more than 60 countries and the European Commission to develop a global monitoring network that is as integrated as the planet it observes, predicts and protects.
Hear hear to all the harrumphing. The problem with this kind of “prediction” is the same problem with polling (BTW see my tagline) — there is no “confidence level” mentioned so many assume that the number of hurricanes will definitely be in the 13-17 range.
In fact, we should probably assume that the highest confidence level is at 15, but that “highest confidence” might be 30%. 14 and 16 might be 25%, etc., until we get all the subtotals adding up to 100%.
Don’t forget the spike in gas prices based on the same premise!
Maybe the new forecast is why gas went to $3.66 here in Michigan today.
B.L.O.A.T.
EVERY YEAR they say this. Eventually they will be right. Even a broken clock is right twice a day.
I don’t know what that means.
But I could use a rubber dinghy.
....didn’t we hear this before - even if it turns out to be true, for those of us not on the coast, should we panic now or later?
After last years prediction that never happened I dont think they really know, but its their job to at least pretend to.
OK. Whatever. Their prognostications weren’t so good last year.
Let me touch dose tings for once.
BTW, in all of the archives except one, they predicted an Above-Normal Hurricane season. Question....how can everything be above normal?
I think that these guys would be more accurate if they just threw a dart.
Back when I was the meteorologist, I would look at the thermometer and barometer and be wrong 24 hours in advance.
Now, they use computer models and computer programs and be wrong seven days in advance.
The hurricane forecasters use all their fancy computers, models from past years and try to forecast the entire season. They are wrong for a full six months for the most part.
I think they're generally pretty good at getting the big annual picture right, though last year they were off.
Generally, the El Nino ("That's Spanish for 'The Nino!" - Chris Farley), La Nina cycle is a solid predictor.
How did we get to this time of year so fast? :)
Ammo is everybody's favorite hurricane supply. BLOAT means "Buy Lots Of Ammo Today"...
“There is a slight possibility that the number of named storms will be either above or below the average. It’s either due to global warming, El Nino, or the lack of either of the two phenomena to effect the onset of winds that might maybe have something or nothing to do with anything. So, we just earned our 22 million dollar grant and I’ll see you in a few months when we adjust the predictions up or down to match the reality of the situation. So long suckers..”
Ah, okay
You can obviously tell I don’t own a gun yet.
One should make the argument that it is good public policy for NOAA to predict lots of storms every year to encourage people to take sensible precautions.
Of course, that argument does not take into account the fact that NOAA will lose credibility after they are wrong. Witness the universal scorn being heaped on them now, after last year's incorrect prediction.
tomorrow!
Even a blind squirrel finds an acorn once in a while. LOL
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.