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To: SupplySider

In your example, the “insurance” guarantees the price of the commodity at a future date, which is supposed to translate to lower prices for the consumer.

Now relate that to the oil business. What do we see? Real or imaginary supply disruptions result in almost immediate increases at the pump. The consumer, who must ultimately pay the cost of the “insurance”, finds that he is not the beneficiary.


167 posted on 06/02/2007 12:56:36 PM PDT by gas0linealley
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To: gas0linealley
Good Sunday to you, gas0linealley. To continue the discussion...

In your example, the “insurance” guarantees the price of the commodity at a future date, which is supposed to translate to lower prices for the consumer. Now relate that to the oil business. What do we see? Real or imaginary supply disruptions result in almost immediate increases at the pump. The consumer, who must ultimately pay the cost of the “insurance”, finds that he is not the beneficiary.

When companies that use oil can better plan what their costs will be, then their businesses are more efficient, and that ultimately trickles down to the price paid for their goods or services by the end users.

General foods might know they'll need 10,000 tons of wheat to make Wheaties next September, and they might see the current price of $5 a bushel as acceptable. They can't predict what the price will in September, so they buy September wheat futures contracts now. They're protected against a spike in prices. The exact same scenario is true for large businesses that consume oil, such as electric utilities or manufacturers. I don't know about the practices of gasoline companies such as Chevron. Perhaps someone here can enlighten us.

Market forces of all kinds including supply and demand changes and rumors of the same will surely buffet gasoline prices, but that doesn't negate the value of hedging. And hedging is not possible unless someone, namely the speculator, is willing to take the other side of the trade.

Speculators also help by making the markets liquid. When oil prices are high, which means demand is high, who is selling to all the hungry buyers? In many cases it will be a speculator who bought at a lower price. He may be driven by evil greed, but he's being rewarded in the marketplace by serving his fellow man by supplying him the goods he desires.

207 posted on 06/03/2007 7:45:12 AM PDT by SupplySider
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