People Flee as Cyclone Gonu Heads to Oil-Rich Persian Gulf (Monster Cyclone UPDATE)

MUSCAT, Oman — More people have fled their homes in Oman's eastern coastal towns as a powerful cyclone approaches the oil-rich Gulf area, police officials said Tuesday.

Cyclone Gonu, with winds of 160 miles per hour and gusts of 195 miles per hour, is heading northwest through the Indian Ocean toward Oman's east coast.

Authorities on Monday evacuated nearly 7,000 people from Masirah, a lowland island off the east coast of Oman, said General Malik bin Suleiman al-Muamri, head of the country's civil defense.

He said that a state of emergency was declared in the affected area, including mobilizing army and police forces to help provide shelter and medical services. More families were also leaving their homes in towns on the mainland on Tuesday, officials said. The government said schools and public building were emptied to make room for the evacuees.

Dear Romulus,

I have reviewed the thread, and that’s why I used the word “stupid” so often in my reply, because it wasn’t personally directed at you.

My bone of contention is blaming the Federal government for what happened. Sure they have some responsibility, and they have sent billions of dollars here already.

As I mentioned before there will never be a system that will be guaranteed 100% foolproof against a category 5 storm, at least not until we reach Star Trek levels of engineering ability (and then there are those pesky Q to sabotage the weather control grids, but I digress).

Therefore, effective evacuation is the ONLY available policy, but you are right in that it is probably not workable, at least not from a government standpoint, especially not from our local governments. It can only be effective if individuals take responsibility for themselves and stop expecting government or anyone else to plan their lives. Good grief, you could WALK to Baton Rouge in 30 hours, if you had a bike you’d get there before anybody in a car. (An option I’m seriously considering after spending 12 hours to make a 90 minute trip)

A year ago, I posted everything I have to say about evacuation and why I believe we have to get past that model:

You mention preparations; what do you have in mind? Given the same challenge and lack of resources, do you think anyone else could have done better? New Orleans has been a poor city for years, but NO government maintains resources standing by on 72 hours’ notice to evacuate 10% or more of its population. How many people can you fit onto a bus? Shall we say 50? That’s over 1,000 bus loads, so we need only about 500 if you assume each bus can make two round trips (which is problematical, given the traffic nightmares of an evacuating city). Even assuming he had the money to pay them where was Nagin supposed to find that equipment, fuel, and drivers — drivers on standby availability, 6 months every year, willing to abandon their own jobs, fleeing families, and exposed property to devote themselves to the welfare of others. This is somewhat more excitement than most bus drivers sign on for, Amelia. And since an evacuation takes 72 hours, and must be complete before the storm arrives, this means that the city should be prepared to rehearse this exercise every time there’s the possibility of even a near miss. The evacuation model means we’ll need proportionate numbers of buses, drivers, MREs, etc every 200 miles or so, along much of the Gulf Coast. We’re not going to do that, Katherine. No population is going to tolerate being hustled out of their homes and onto the roads under these rules, even if the money were there to pay for it. People aren’t stupid. Evacuation is not a viable public safety model, and after one or two scares, the public will refuse to play any longer. The solution is not evacuation, but levees, drainage, and above all, coastal restoration.

Then there’s the problem of evacuation destinations. Shall we evacuate them to the Dome again? Katrina evacuees were instructed to bring their supplies. Do you think they did? Before anyone says that’s the government’s job, can you name a municipality able to procure drinking water, supplies, and 100,000 MREs on 72 hours’ notice? Shall we evacuate out of area? Fine: we need a place ready to receive us—also well in advance of the storm. What if we just bring them all to your house? Can we count on your taking us all in? Is the city of Houston going to drop everything to place the Astrodome at the disposal of New Orleans evacuees every time we need to get out of town? What if the storm veers? Then the authorities will have marshalled resources and moved the equivalent of a small city, being faced with the additional problem of repatriating them while providing for the REAL victims, whoever they may be. They’ll have created artifial refugees, consuming emergency supplies while the real refugees are awaiting help. They’ll have put hundreds of thousands of people onto the roads where they may be trapped by a storm that zigs just when the experts are saying it’s suposed to zag.

Amelia, please to understand the bankruptcy of the blame game, which is being cheered on by talk radio and political shout shows, by provocateurs whose object is not public safety but managing perceptions and scoring points off the opposition. Don’t let yourself be used. I know this is America where everything comes with a money back guarantee and the customer is never supposed to go away dissatisfied, but in the real world, things go wrong even with the best of intentions. We live in a fallen world, and Stuff Happens. When a catastrophic earthquake next strikes San Francisco or Los Angeles, will they have the resources to provide for half a million of its most helpless, disorderly, and improvident citizens? I doubt it.

No one who wasn’t here and doesn’t have an intimate knowledge of this city is in a position to hold any opinion about how matters were handled here. Talking heads get paid to talk like instant experts, and I don’t suppose there’s any way we can get them to shut up. But that doesn’t mean the rest of us have to take them seriously.

That’s over 1,000 bus loads, so we need only about 500 if you assume each bus can make two round trips (which is problematical, given the traffic nightmares of an evacuating city).

And how many school busses were left behind to be flooded? You keep whining about how impossible it is to evacuate when a small, poor city like Galveston has a plan to use its school and municipal busses to evacuate those without cars - and carried such off during Rita.

It does help if you have a plan in place beforehand. And don't wait until 24 hours out to start evacuating. Galveston swung into gear 72 hours out. Ray Nagin spent the Saturday before Katrina tracking down his city attorney regarding the legality of a mandatory evacuation order. That's something you do long before a hurricane is bearing down on you. And is indicative of the sorry state of planning by state and local officials.

I'm sorry, but attitudes like yours are how NOLA ended up in such a mess in the first place. The feds do NOT exist to create Cat 5 seawalls so you don't have to evacuate. No such creature exists anyway.

Shall we evacuate out of area? Fine: we need a place ready to receive us—also well in advance of the storm. What if we just bring them all to your house? Can we count on your taking us all in? Is the city of Houston going to drop everything to place the Astrodome at the disposal of New Orleans evacuees every time we need to get out of town?

You keep making a worse and worse case.

It should not be Houston's responsibility to take in NOLA evacuees for short-term evacuations. It should be up to the inland communities in Louisiana to work with the state government to open school gyms, churches and community centers.

But the state didn't do that, did they? Instead, it was left to states that actually prepare, such as Texas, to take them in.

You have a touching faith in the reliability of bus drivers to answer the bell when the time comes. What makes you think they’ll do it? Would you let yourself be separated from your home and loved ones at such a time? What makes you think someone else would — and that someone not a trained public safety professional, but a humble bus driver? Ain’t gonna happen.

You may not know how hard the authorities made it to get back into the city for a month after the storm. But everyone here remembers and is mindful of how much looting or just plain damage from weather exposure can happen over a period of weeks. A lot of folks who evacuated last time will resist going again because they fear leaving their property and resent the power grab by government and the lies they peddled to terrorise people out of their homes.

It’s really something to see you talk first about self-reliance and in the next breath endorsing mandatory orders. We don’t live in a total police state quite yet. And for the record, Nagin, in a joint news conference with the governor, was urging evacuation Friday afternoon (Friday morning the storm had been headed to Apalachicola): “This is not a test. This is the real deal,” Nagin said. “Things could change, but as of right now, New Orleans is definitely the target for this hurricane.” The mayor said he would stick with the state’s evacuation plan and not officially call for residents to leave until 30 hours before expected landfall, allowing residents in low-lying surrounding areas to leave first. But he recommended residents in low-lying areas of the city, such as Algiers and the 9th Ward, get a heard start. “We want you to take this a little more seriously and start moving — right now, as a matter of fact,” Nagin said.

Finally — If the Federal government has a trillion dolars to waste in Irq (and it will have done so before that adventure’s over), they sure as hell have enough to buy flood protection for American citizens in an American city.

You have a touching faith in the reliability of bus drivers to answer the bell when the time comes. What makes you think they’ll do it?

Once again, GALVESTON already worked all this out. If you are indicative of the attitudes towards emergency planning in Louisiana, I can see why things were so messed up.

It’s really something to see you talk first about self-reliance and in the next breath endorsing mandatory orders.

It's much more telling for you to be unable to grasp how the two work together. My parents used to live in Rockport, Texas, and that town issued mandatory evacuation orders 72 hours before Rita's possible landfall (and it's a lot easier to evacuate Rockport than NOLA, but Rockport still started with more lead time). But it was up to my parents to get themselves out of town.

WAAA! Uncle Sam is spending money on national defense and not on New Orleans!

Later. You sould more and more like a damn liberal Democrat with each post. And I don't care to waste another second responding to your sense of entitlement.

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