Intrade Newsletter - Fred Thompson powers into pole position!

Intrade ^ | 6-6-2007 | Intrade

[jmc813]

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The Political Prediction Markets

June 6th 2007.  In This issue... Bulls: Who�s Advancing? Bears: Who�s Declining? Most Active: Show me the $! Benchmark Markets

Fred Thompson powers into pole position! This bulletin provides a snapshot of the hundreds of important political and related markets on the Intrade exchange.  It highlights the week�s biggest winners (F. Thompson and Gore),  biggest losers and most actively traded markets.  In a world of data overload we aim to deliver succinct, accurate information to keep you up-to-date.

 

The Intrade Bulls

Markets or candidates that have performed well recently (normally 7 days).

	Probability of Victory
	7 Days Ago	Today	Change		Change %	Chart
F. Thompson to be next President	7.6%	14.0%		6.4	84.2%	Chart
F. Thompson to be Rep. Presidential Nominee	22.0%		25.8%	3.8	17.3%	Chart
Edwards to be Dem. Presidential Nominee		6.2%	7.2%	1.0	16.1%	Chart
Clinton to be next President	36.7%	39.2%	2.5	6.8%		Chart
Gore to be Dem. Presidential Nominee	9.9%	10.5%	0.6		6.1%	Chart

Note: Occasionally we will include Bull Markets even if they are not the top % gainers.

 

The Intrade Bears

Markets or candidates that have performed poorly recently (normally 7 days).

	Probability of Victory
	7 Days Ago	Today	Change		Change %	Chart
Richardson to be Dem. Presidential Nominee	3.0%	2.3%		-0.7	-23.3%	Chart
Gingrich to be Rep. Presidential Nominee	2.9%		2.3%	-0.6	-20.7%	Chart
Bush to be impeached by end-of-term		9.7%	8.1%	-1.6	-16.5%	Chart
McCain to be Rep. Presidential Nominee	18.5%	15.6%	-2.9	-15.7%		Chart
Gonzales to resign by end of September	51.3%	45.1%	-6.2		-12.1%	Chart

Note: Occasionally we will include the Bear Markets even if they are not the top % losers.

 

Most Actively Traded

Most actively traded markets this week

	Probability		Volume Traded
	7 Days Ago	Today	Total		Last 7 Days	Chart
F. Thompson to be Rep. Presidential Nominee	22.0%	25.8%		22,604	3,287	Chart
Paul to be Rep. Presidential Nominee	1.3%		3.0%	30,669	2,310	Chart
Clinton to be next President		36.7%	39.2%	28,310	2,226	Chart
McCain to be Rep. Presidential Nominee	18.5%	15.6%	88,265	2,164		Chart
Gore to be Dem. Presidential Nominee	9.9%	10.5%	188,865		1,911	Chart

 

 

 

Benchmark Markets

Democratic Nomination Market      The two leading contenders have been trading in a well defined range for a number of weeks now.  Hillary Clinton is currently trading at 51.2 (meaning she has a 51.2% chance of winning the nomination). Barack Obama is trading at 27.8.  Over the last 90 days Clinton's lead over Obama has averaged 18.5. However, over the last seven days her lead has extended to average 23.4 points.  As can be seen from the chart, Obama has recently gone through a resistance line at 28.0. Only time will tell if Clinton's lead, which is increasing, will be maintained.  For the chartists amongst you, we would highlight that Edwards' 30-day moving average touched the longer term 90-day average from beneath and bounced down in bearing manner. Please let us know if you would like to see the chart.  Meanwhile Al Gore maintains a market price of 10.5 (10.5% chance of winning)  despite remaining undeclared as a candidate.

 

Republican Nomination Market     Fred Thompson is now the leading contender to win the Republican Nomination!   As of today his  market is trading at 25.8 (up 17.3% from a week ago), meaning he has an 25.8% probability of winning the Republican nomination according to Intrade members.  This strength comes at the expense of both John McCain and Rudi Giuliani. McCain has seen his value decrease to 15.6 ( drop of 15.7% over the past seven days) from a peak of 55.8 back in November 2006. Giuliani, who was the front-runner for a number of weeks, has now fallen slightly behind Thompson. He trades at 24.3, or 1.5 less than Thompson. Giuliani has fallen some 24.1% in value over the past 30 days. Through all of this Mitt Romney has held his ground. He is currently trading at 22.1, which is a 4.0% dip over the past seven days but a 13.3% increase over 90 days.

 

About Intrade

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[jmc813]

Sorry the formatting is a little messed up. If you go to the link, it is much easier to read.

[jmc813]

ping

[Jeff Chandler]

So this isn’t an article about his wife?

[jmc813]

So this isn’t an article about his wife?

Rule #1, yo.

[The Blitherer]

lol, my first thought as well.

[Rick_Michael]

Of Coarse....